These are the dudes the Pistons apparently want. Should they want them? See below, where I analyze these dudes.
- Ben Gordon
Why I like it: The Pistons desperately need outside shooting to beat the zone, and Ben Gordon provides that. He can come off the bench as part of a three guard rotation, and take the heat of Rodney Stuckey. Derrick Rose clearly benefited from playing alongside Gordon last year, and the same should hold true here.
At 26, Gordon should be in peak form long enough to help the Pistons win a title, and could be the key to converting to a more uptempo game.
Why I hate it: Gordon’s ability to defend the two spot is questionable at best. While Gordon should be fine coming of the bench in spurts, Rip Hamilton obviously is not. I would have to think this would be the first domino to fall in a busy summer for the Pistons should he wind up here.
- Charlie Villanueva
Why I like it: At age 24, Charlie V. quietly put together a breakout season, scoring 24 points per 40 minutes. He’s also an underrated rebounder, who can hit the three and hit free throws. In other words, he’s a bit like the guy he would be replacing. Villanueva still carries baggage from a draft in which he was excoriated by scouts for a lackluster attitude. As such, he is likely to come at a bargain price.
Why I hate it: Some of that baggage is deserved, and he is notoriously terrible defender, which results in a high foul rate that keeps him off the court. While a jump in productivity is not unheard of at age 24, it was a contract year from a guy regarded as a flake. Also, the last time the Pistons had an oddball power forward who averaged 16 ppg at the 4, he drowned.
- Hedo Turkoglu
Why I like it: Hedo was a key component of the Magic’s fairy-tale run to the championship. He can knock down threes, can play the four or the five, and is a good passer for his size.
Why I hate it: Let me put it this way. Hedo and the Magic were made for each other. With the possible exception of Portland, no team could be a better match for his skill set. And he still wasn’t that good, sporting a paltry 14.82 PER on 41% shooting. Not a problem for a guy seeking the MLE, but Turk turned down $35 million over four years. Pass.
- David Lee
Why I like it: David Lee is a flatly outstanding rebounder who can generate offense for himself solely by hanging around the rim. His defense, while uninspired, exceeds his reputation. While players like Lee tend to get overpaid, the Knicks are not keen to re-sign him, which means he could be had at a reasonable price. $36 million for four years? I’m buying at that price. Lee had the highest PER of any free agent during the 2008-09 season.
Why I hate it: The PER is at its worst when measuring great rebounders who are not great defenders. The fact of the matter is that every missed shot results in a rebound. Someone’s going to get that rebound, and if you play on a team that is not inclined to chase down the ball. If Lee is such an astonishing rebounder, why was his team one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball? In fact, three of the four worst rebounding teams featured players (Kaman, Camby, Biedrins and Lee) who are regarded for their rebounding.
- Marcin Gortat
Why I like it: He’s a true center, and he isn’t Kwame Brown. Also, he seems to be a good basketball player. In limited minutes, he has shown himself to be a good rebounder and good defender.
Why I hate it: I think he’s going to be overpriced. There is a built-in risk signing a guy whose only role was spot duty for Dwight Howard. Sure he grabbed rebounds. Who else was going to with Howard on the bench? Marcin Gortat for $4 million per year? Worht the risk. Marcin Gortat for $8 million per year? Echoes of Calvin Booth.
- Paul Millsap
Why I like it: Millsap has always shown signs of being a real talent. This year, he demonstrated that he is, in fact, a real talent. His string of double-doubles in Carlos Boozer’s absence were impressive. He’s a tough defender who won’t hesitate to mutilate. He shares Jason Maxiell’s culinary affinity for infants.
Why I hate it: Speaking of Jason Maxiell… Is Paul Millsap that much better? I’m not so sure, and I’m not interested in paying $50 million to find out. The truth is that Millsap’s asking price accords with his full potential. Sometimes, you have to take that risk, but Millsap has yet to prove he can stay on the court. If we’re going to hold that against our present talent, shouldn’t we factor that in to our free agent signings?
- Marvin Williams
Why I like it: An under the radar free agent, on account of his restricted status, Marvin Williams has registered two consecutive seasons of substantial improvement. Once regarded as a bust, Williams has become an effective mid-range shooter who is capable of getting to the line, and has only recently added a three point shot to his repetoire. At age 23, there is still some upside here, and Williams could be had at a bargain. Plus, unlike most possibilities listed here, Williams is a solid defender.
Why I hate it: We have two wing players who can play defense and have solid mid-range games. Plus, since Williams is restricted, we’ll have to deal with the headache of waiting for Atlanta’s gonzo leadership posse to make a decision as to whether to match. Plus, Williams is inconsistent enough that last year’s uptick could be seen as a contract year ploy for more cash.
- Leon Powe
Why I like it: Powe has demonstrated all-star talent, which comes at a bargain-basement price out of concern for his knees. We would be taking away the Celtics’ insurance policy, further cementing their demise.
Why I hate it: Does he suffer injuries, or does he just wear out? If the latter, then he is almost useless in building a championship roster. Also, the arrival of Kevin Garnett seemed to cast a weird spell on the team’s role players. I’m not sure we can replicate that magic here.
- Trevor Ariza
Why I like it: Trevor Ariza is magic!
Why I hate it: No he isn’t. Ariza has demonstrated that he deserves a starting job somewhere. Key rotation player on a championship team isn’t a bad second best. But Tayshaun Prince is better than Trevor Ariza, and we didn’t store up cap room to make a series of semi-lateral moves. Let’s just admire the dude from afar, okay?
while I think Gordon would ultimately be fine with coming off the bench, I wonder if there’s some assurance he won’t if he’s going to sign an FA deal? Or maybe once he’s paid he really won’t care.
I’ll put the Pistons on my league pass watch list just to see some BG at the point. I don’t think it’s that awful (for a few minutes a game) and it’ll be entertaining.
The restricted FAs (Milsap, Lee, Williams) are a bit dicey as their current teams can wait 7 days before deciding as to whether to match the offer. Then you have to ask is it worth the risk to wait and miss out on unrestricted FAs…
No offense, Kevin, but we’ve been analyzing all of these players to death over in the Carlos Boozer thread. You should come join us.
In case anyone wants to check the stats themselves, I did player comparisons for the guards/wings and the PF’s, unfortunately Gortat is just by himself
This is just their stats from last season.
Here’s Gordon/Ariza/Turk/Williams:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=gordobe01&y1=2009&p2=willima02&y2=2009&p3=arizatr01&y3=2009&p4=turkohe01&y4=2009
and here’s Villanueva/Millsap/Lee/Powe:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=millspa01&y1=2009&p2=villach01&y2=2009&p3=powele01&y3=2009&p4=leeda02&y4=2009
Gortat:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html
The Pistons really need big men so we should really go after Gortat, and Powe , who is going to play with a chip on his shoulder since the Celtics basically ousted him. And then we should add Marvin Williams and maybe Andre Miller to the mix. Ben Gordon is not worth the money or trouble. Defensively he’s a liability and a streaky shooter. Boozer can stay in Utah too.
Bench AI! Fire Curry!
Nice post Kevin. Good analysis.
Portland’s Rudy Fernandez is pissed that they love Hedo so much:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4300407
If the Pistons hadn’t just drafted three small forwards, I’d say maybe we could consider absorbing Rudy’s contract.
Good post Kevin.
Looking at everyones stats side by side, there’s a couple things I think should be added (also I posted links to b-ref player comparisons which have the players you listed split into guard/wings, and PF’s, and Gortat by himself, but it’s stuck in moderation).
Anyway, when you wrote about David Lee you mentioned one of the problems with PER is that it can overrate guys who play on teams without any other good rebounders. But PER has an arguably greater weakness: It overrates volume scoring. I think the cutoff for when it starts penaliing players for inefficiency is if their fg% drops below 33%.
That’s a roundabout way of saying I don’t like what I see in Villanueva stats when compared with the other guys. Villanueva averaged the most points per/36 minutes, but he also had by far the lowest TS% and eFG%, and by my quick calculation he shot under 50% on his 2 point field goal attempts, which is flat out embarrassing for a PF. I think even giving CV a contract around the mid-level would be a mistake. I’d rather overpay for a good player than sign a sub-par player to a smaller contract.
Just looked at in a vacuum, and ignoring the lack of PF/C’s on the roster, I agree that Gordon’s game could greatly benefit Stuckey. Gordon’s TS% and eFG% are both very good for guard. The problem is he has almost no secondary skills (he’s not a horrible passer, but it’s definitely not a strength). So with a guard rotation of Stuck/Rip/Gordon/Bynum we’d have plenty of scoring punch, but not a lot of assists (or rebounds).
That guard rotation basically necessitate a great defensive frontcourt, which is why the idea of signing Charlie V along with Gordon has left me scratching my head. I don’t really like either of them by themselves, but signed together…? That would be a team killing mistake.
Putting too many players together whose only strength is scoring has historically never worked… I.E. a roster with Rip/Gordon/Charlie in prominent roles would be doomed before the season even starts.
I thought I might put up a PREDICTION of what will happen this offseason for the pistons.
1. CV is signed. The Pistons need to sign either CV or trade for Boozer, because they need someone who will be able to spread the lane as a PF. CV is young, won’t be a one-year rental, and has so far been injury free.
2. Ben Gordon is signed. With Villenueva and some defensive center (probably Kwame), the frontcourt will not be offering much scoring punch. The team will be in dire need of someone who can take over a game, because the combined offense of Stuck, Rip, Tay, and CV isn’t going to cut it. Ben Gordon can do that.
3. Rip is traded. We already have a “microwave”; we don’t have room for another + Afflalo. Langlois of course says either Rip or Tay could be traded in this scenario, but I think that is bull. Trying small ball for a few weeks is one thing, building a long term roster around it is another. I am not sure where he will go, but I could see Camby coming here. (Apparently the Clippers have had trouble unloading either Kaman or Randolf, and might be willing to part with Camby.)
Roster (without adding player(s) gained from a Rip trade):
Stuck/Bynum
Gordon/Afflalo
Tay/Daye/Summers
CV31/Maxiell
Kwame
I think its conceivable that McDyess comes back for a little under the MLE, although not something to bet on. He would add some much needed depth and scoring to the frontcourt.
I don’t actually think this is a terrible roster. (And remember there is still a Rip trade and a few million dollars to play with.)Not minding blowing, but definitely competitive. As someone said recently, the championship was just won by a team that plays decent defense and great offense. And they beat a team that plays great defense and has a decent offense. The rule changes in the league have made penetration a priority, and this roster will be able to take advantage of that.
doh- nevermind, my stats only post is no longer under moderation
“No offense, Kevin, but we’ve been analyzing all of these players to death over in the Carlos Boozer thread. You should come join us.”
Sigh. I posted on another free agency discussion, and someone told me I should post my thoughts on free agency. You can’t please ‘em all, dude.
5 guards (MFWB, Spellcheck, Rip, Stuckey, + Gordon is too much). It seems very likely that JOD has a trade for a second big already set up, but contingent upon him making his free agent catches. I think that Tay is the one who gets traded. I say this sadly because he is my favorite Piston. And I hate Gordon. I had a blast making fun of my Chicago fan friends out here, pointing out that Gordon was too short and easy to shut down when crunch time comes. Unfortunately, we may be finding this out soon.
Reasons:
1) The leak that Curry was fired to help with free agents “because players talk…” who is talking? My guess is it is members of the U-Conn fraternity. Tay doesn’t strike me as someone who talks to anybody.
2) It has been pointed out that Tay is easier to move and Rip actually proved he could play the 3 this year (perhaps the only “positive” thing to emerge from the small ball experiment).
3) Rip/Stucky/Gordon = 3 guys who can take it to the hole which makes Gordon more valuable for a kick out.
4) It makes Daye the “different look” at 3 if Rip is undersized and Summers the “different look” if Rip is getting pushed around.
For Prince fans out there, the best thing to hope for is that Chicago comes up with some cash.
I agree with what you said there IPL, but I am still a little nervous about having two volume shooters in the lineup. Plus CV (kind of a volume shooter) and Stuck (who needs to be more assertive). I understand that Gordon doesn’t need the ball in his hands or as many shots as AI, but I just don’t think that is very balanced.
Nice post Kevin, I agree with pretty much everything you said to a T. I’ve always been curious where all the love here for Ariza came from, never made any sense to me.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-gordonpistons070109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
its happening. although I was really hoping that if it had to happen, it would be for cheaper.
No one pays 11 mil per year for a 6th man.
Add Villanueva (new spell check) for five years and $35 mill according to Sports Illustrated. Joe D is going for the uptempo approach that Comrade Stern is trying to encourage. I have to think this means Rip will be traded, hopefully for an impact big man who can defend. In the course of a year the best backcourt duo in the league will have been sent packing. This better work Dumars, or the fans might never forgive you for bringing the Chauncey/Rip days to an end.
Pretty disastrous day all around if you ask me. Ben Gordon is a sixth man type for a reason. He is horrible on defense and dominates the ball when he is in the game. Playing him 35-40 minutes a game he is most likely giving up as many points and he scores. Charlie V is super soft. Sure he can score but he is an average rebounder and really bad at defense. The Pistons are going to be horrible on defense next season. Even if they could trade Hamilton for a guy like Kaman this group of starters has 7-10 in thee conference written all over it:
Stuckey
Gordan
Kaman
Villaneuva
Prince
There isn’t one of the top 40 players in the league in that grouping imo.