Detroit Bad Boys

I received an interesting email from DBB reader Fadel:

I’m always hearing people (and even the Pistons themselves) saying how much rest the starters are getting because the bench is playing more. But is this actually true and does this really matter? I made a spreadsheet comparing the minutes the starters played in 2006-2007 and this year (2007-2008).

Last year everyone says fatigue was the reason why the Pistons struggled in the playoffs. However, even though the starters (except McDyess) are averaging fewer minutes per game, they will have logged more minutes at the end of the season. The only real difference shows with Tayshaun Prince, who will have played about 227 fewer minutes than last year.

Take a look at the numbers. I think this is interesting. (Note: I assumed each starter will finish the remainder of the season logging their current average minutes per game).

The reason for the discrepancy is so simple I hesitate to point it out: the starters are missing fewer games this year. Chauncey Billups missed 12 games last year while Rip Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace each missed seven. So far this year, none of the starters have missed more than four. I’d expect the average minutes played to dip slightly between here and the end of the season (if for no other reason than to make up for the last few games where the starters traditionally sit out for most of the game), but perhaps not enough to make up for the difference.

Is Fadel onto something? Is all of this talk about fewer minutes just hype that won’t have any real affect come playoff time? I honestly don’t know. But I have a hunch that reducing the minutes per game is more beneficial than simply reducing the overall minutes, at least to the degree that we’re looking at.

Why? Think of it like this: if you work a 40-hour work week by tallying eight hours a day for five days, you’ll be frazzled come Friday evening but hardly asleep on your feet. But if you spend the first three days wasting time and then close out week with two 20-hour work days, you’ll be a zombie by the weekend. Obviously I’m exaggerating to make a point, but I think there’s something to that.

Also, let’s not assume that all minutes are created equal. The Pistons are undeniably more efficient as a team this year (there are lots of ways to measure this, but I’m going to use 82games.com’s quick and easy “points per 100 possessions” — last year the Pistons averaged 109 on offense and gave up 103 on defense; this year, it’s 112 and 103, respectively), which suggests there’s a diminishing return to playing longer minutes per game. Billups has explained it by saying he feels fresher in late-game situations this year because he’s able to sit for longer periods of time early, which makes sense.

If this is the case, the cumulative number of minutes may not be quite as important as the ability to get rest in the middle of a game … which means perhaps the Pistons ought not follow the conventional “shorten the rotation for the playoffs” school of thought. Maybe it’s the fact Detroit can go 10, 11, 12 deep on any given night that keeps the starters so fresh and the opposition on their heels. It’s something to think about.

Let’s face it, the Pistons are in an unusual situation where guys that can’t even dress would probably crack the eight-man rotation of just about any other team in the league — and it’s not just me saying it. Here’s Byron Scott …

“[Jarvis Hayes] had 29 points, that was a real big surprise. He had a season high at halftime – a guy we didn’t mention a whole lot,” said Byron Scott. “We did talk about their bench as being a very good basketball team and that we had to come out and do a better job when their starters went out because we don’t feel they have much of a let down.

… and here’s Gregg Poppovich:

“To me, their bench is the most impressive in the league,” Popovich said. “Those guys take pride in what they do when they step on the court. They’re very physical, very energetic.”

And that’s just me grabbing quotes from their last two opposing coaches — were I to look for more, I’m sure it wouldn’t be hard to find. Playing the starters for fewer minutes not only reduces the load over the course of an entire season but also provides more opportunities within an individual game for a highly energized and motivated reserve to come in and make a huge impact. (This isn’t news: it’s what was behind the mini fan-uproar when Flip Saunders didn’t play Amir Johnson in Utah.) Jarvis and Maxiell had this impact on Sunday, Amir has done it in the past, and Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo have done it on occasion. Heck, providing short bursts of defensive energy in the playoffs is the only thing Lindsey Hunter is expected to contribute this year.

So does the fact that the starting lineup will actually play more minutes this season than last bother me? Not necessarily. Maybe I’ll change my mind if the starters routinely log 40+ minutes a night in the playoffs, but if they can stick with something that resembles the current formula, fatigue shouldn’t be a factor.

The All-Star is still a few weeks away, but the season’s true midpoint is this Friday when the Pistons play their 41st game of the season. Not surprisingly, everyone seems to be taking the time to evaluate the Pistons’ season thus far. Chris McCosky does a player-by-player recap in the Detroit News, while Krista Jahnke hands out mid-season grades in the Free Press.

Read the whole article for Jahnke’s reasoning behind each grade, but these are her marks (bear in mind as you’re reading that you’re grading not just the overall contribution to the team, but how well a player fills his specific role):

Starters

• Chauncey Billups — B+
• Rip Hamilton — A-
• Tayshaun Prince — B
• Rasheed Wallace — C-
• Chris Webber — Incomplete

Reserves

• Lindsey Hunter — A-
• Antonio McDyess — C
• Carlos Delfino — B
• Dale Davis — B
• Jason Maxiell — B+
• Flip Murray — D
• Nazr Mohammed — D+
• Amir Johnson — Incomplete
• Ronald Dupree — A
• Will Blalock — C

Coach

• Flip Saunders — B

I’m going to put together my own mid-season evaluation this weekend, but I’m interested in your thoughts. Do you agree with these grades? Disagree? Have it out in the comments.

Pistons’ midseason grades [Detroit Free Press]

For a guy who hadn’t played a game in three weeks and had just one shootaround with his new team, Chris Webber did a respectable job on Wednesday. He opened the game on the bench, getting some last-minute pointers from assistant coach Ron Harper before making his debut two minutes into the second quarter.

Two things were obvious in his short time on the court: 1) he was far more concerned about making a good impression with his teammates than the Palace crowd, and 2) he really didn’t know what he was supposed to be doing.

Instead of looking for his shot he focused on finding his teammates. On his first touch, he found Rip cutting toward the basket for what should have been an assist for an easy layup. Rip went a little too hard with it, though, and it rimmed out. On his second touch, he picked up the assist when he drove toward the lane before kicking it back out to a wide-open Chauncey Billups for three.

Later, he found Lindsey Hunter cutting toward the basket, but missed out on an assist when Hunter was fouled. Webber also had a slick behind-the-back pass in the paint to Tayshaun Prince, but Prince was clearly not expecting it and let it get away. That should change in time as everyone gets accustomed to keeping their hands up when C-Webb has the ball.

As for my second observation, Webber spent nearly every stoppage in play talking to his teammates or coaches about where he should be. During an in-bounds play soon after he entered the game, Carlos Delfino actually had to reach out and pull him by the arm to his spot on the floor, holding him there until the ball was released. That’s completely to be expected, though, considering Webber has yet to go through his first real practice with the team.

From Krista Jahnke in the Detroit Free Press:

Saunders kept the offense simple with Webber on the floor, and Webber concentrated on not doing too much, on staying unselfish and trying to blend in.

But for flashes, it was clear that something special was brewing. When Webber entered the game, the Pistons had a three-point lead. Seven minutes later, they were up 12.

“I think he gave everyone a glimpse of what’s to come,” Billups said. “It is his first game in a long, long time. He is really out there trying to not mess up the flow and just sit back and let it happen. That really speaks to his character, to be the kind of player that he is and he wants to come in and just say, ‘You go ahead, I’ll follow.’.”

In one stretch, he did lead. Webber hit a 17-footer, then blocked Matt Harping’s layup, kept the ball, fed it quickly to Billups who got it to Rasheed Wallace for a three-pointer.

“I just wanted to be as non-noticeable as possible,” Webber said, “as I told a couple of guys on the team .”

Webber finished the game with five boards, three assists and two points on 1-5 shooting in 17 minutes. I’m guessing he’ll be starting by Friday, when the Pistons take on the Timberwolves, but in any case he should be much more aggressive in terms of looking for his own shot.

In terms of defense, well, that should theoretically improve in time, as well, once he learns Flip’s system (or once Flip creates a system, I’m not sure which one it is… ). His block was nice but he didn’t do a great deal to stop Carlos Boozer or the constant stream of layups by Deron Williams. The important thing to remember, though, is Ben Wallace is no longer the measuring stick; Nazr Mohammed is. And considering Webber didn’t pick up four fouls in under 20 minutes, he’s already something of an improvement. Whether he can help slow down Kevin Garnett on Friday will be a big, big test.

One more point that doesn’t really fit anywhere else: I don’t know if it was his 21-day layoff or what, but he rarely got going faster than a jog up and down the court. It wasn’t really a liability in this game since it more or less matched the pace Detroit usually plays at, but it made me wonder just how fast he could run if he really had to open up. This isn’t the C-Webb of old, folks. This is an old C-Webb. Even so, I’m still convinced he brings more to the table than some of his critics have suggested.

Jazz spoil Webber debut, return of Billups [Detroit Free Press]