A Detroit Pistons blog
Nothing says “Happy St. Patrick’s Day!” like Dirk-Nowitzki-themed bluegrass, right?
If you made it all the way through that, you’re a better man than I. The ball tips in just a few minutes on FSN. Leave your thoughts (but not your pro-/anti-Iverson vitriol, por favor) in the comments.
Talk about a lazy man’s preview — not only am I resorting to a random, semi-nostalgic video, I’m also ripping off one of Mike Payne’s comments:
To put this in perspective: this is the starting lineup that knocked Orlando out of the playoffs last year when Billups was hurt. Of course, there’s the whole MCIAFI and morale factors that make this a very different team, but when it comes to personnel, its the same group.
On top of that, we’ve got a fiery hall-of-famer coming off the bench.
If Flip Saunders were our coach tonight, I’d say this would be an easy win. Even though he’s not, I’m feeling roundly more positive about this game than I was 24 hours ago.
As it happens, there won’t be any Hall of Fame fire from the bench tonight — even though Allen Iverson’s MRI earlier today was negative, he still returned to Detroit for further tests. His status for Sunday’s game in Boston is unknown. Also of note: Rasheed Wallace was fined $25K for “throwing in the towel” on Wednesday.
The ball is tipping, do your thing in the comments!
I’m mailing in this preview just like the Pistons mailed in their last game — MW
Ball tips at 7:30 PM
Oppo Research:
The title of that video is “Dwyane Wade dunks Rashard Lewis while scoring 50 points.” The moral of the story, I suppose, is that Dwyane Wade will eat you alive unless Dwight Howard is there to stop him or Shaquille O’Neal is there to comment on his small ears. Or something. I’m not entirely sure what’s going on, but I do know that neither Howard nor O’Neal are on the Pistons, and that if Wade scores 50 tonight, there’s no chance in hell the Pistons will still win by 20.
The Drama:
The Pistons have won just five of their last 20 games, and if they lose tonight, they’ll slide under .500 for the first time since November 2006.
Keys for Detroit:
Don’t suck.
Question of the Game:
Things can’t get worse … can they?
Kevin is sitting a few rows behind the Pistons bench for this game (where he will gently suggest helpful advice to MC and Co. all night long, I’m sure), so I’m taking the preview reins back for the night.
GAME TIME: 8 PM ET
Oppo Research
You know the Pistons technically have a winning record but lately play like a lottery team? Well, the Timberwolves are 11 games under .500 but lately have played like a contender.
Minnesota is 10-2 for the month of January, and while they’ve certainly played some patsies (two wins against the Bulls, two wins against the Bucks, wins against the Clippers and Thunder), the Pistons have lost to inferior teams in that same span. Make no mistake, the Pistons are underdogs — both in the subjective minds of suspicious fans as well as objective minds of Vegas bookies.
I’m convinced this game will be won and lost in the paint: Al Jefferson is a bona fide star and Kevin Love is averaging a double-double (in 24 minutes!) for the month of January. Oh yeah, Randy Foye is playing his best ball of the season, as well. The only silver lining? This team still starts the virtually useless Sebastian Telfair.
The Drama:
If the fact that fans are nervous about a January game in Minnesota doesn’t tell you things are messed up in Pistonsville, I don’t know what to say.
Keys for Detroit:
Glue Rasheed to the paint: If the Pistons are going to have any luck stopping slowing down the Jefferson-Love tandem, they need their big men in the post the entire night.
Don’t forget about the bench: I’m not sure who’s starting (don’t be surprised if Kwame Brown gets the nod, even after his disaster of an outing against the Rockets), but this is absolutely not the game to randomly give Jason Maxiell or Amir Johnson a DNP. You wouldn’t it’d be necessary to point that out, but, um, it is.
Stay aggressive in the backcourt: What’s the best way to deal with an opposing big man? Force him out of the game with foul trouble. Allen Iverson and Rodney Stuckey should attack the lane all night long. Even if AI keeps missing free throws, at least someone’s getting stuck with a foul. Stuckey hasn’t even attempted a free throw the last two games; that needs to change.
Question of the game:
Can Rasheed Wallace string together two solid outings in a row? Or was Sunday’s 22-point, 11-board performance a black swan event? (Hi Petey!)
GAME TIME: 8:00 PM ET
Thunder: 7-33 (5-16 Home)
Margin: -7.4 ppg (-5.0 Home)
Last 10: 4-6 (margin -2.0)
Pistons: 22-15 (10-9 Road)
Margin: +0.4 ppg (-0.9 Road)
Last 10: 6-4 (margin +1.1)
(My apologies for the erratic home/road margins. As has been the case with increasing frequency, ESPN has been unreliable for this data. I realized something was off when our road margin had somehow improved after the Indiana game.)
Oppo research:
The OKC Thunder have ceased to be the laughing stock of the NBA. Kevin Durant is finally emerging as a legitimate star, becoming a more efficient scorer and a better rebounder. Russell Westbrook is emerging as the front runner for the ROY award, and his improved shooting and rebounding have allowed the Thunder to start him alongside Earl Watson, thus fortifying the starting lineup.
Credit first year coach Scott “Don’t call me ‘Scotty’”Brooks for emphasizing rebounding and taking advantage of his team’s athleticism to become a relatively solid defensive squad. With the addition of Nenad Krstic and the re-awakening of Nick Collison, the Thunder trounced Utah 114-93 on Wednesday night.
The Thunder still have gaps, of course. Depth at the guard position is an issue, as Desmond Mason is their only option after the complete collapse of Damien Wilkins. Earl Watson hasn’t exactly been lighting it up either. Durant’s failure to succeed at the two has forced the Thunder to use a smallball rotation even though they have enough bigs to man the four and five positions if Jeff Green is playing the three.
But this is a vastly improved team with an excellent shot at playing its way out of the cellar before the end of the season.
The Drama:
Rasheed missed shootout, and will be a game time decision. Is it just an illness, or is he checking out? According to Basketball-Reference, Walter Herrman is questionable, with flu-like symptoms. Who knew beauty was a flu-like symptom?
Keys for Detroit:
Ditch smallball: It doesn’t work.
Go big: If possible, start players who are 6′10 or taller at the power-forward and center positions.
Avoid under-sized lineups: Play each player at his natural position.
Question of the game:
Are the Thunder the favorite in this game? Vegas gives Detroit a four point edge, but that’s probably being generous. At present, the Thunder are outplaying Charlotte and Indiana. Could this be the final nail in the smallball coffin?
GAME TIME: 7:30 PM ET
Bobcats: 14-24 (4-12 Road)
Margin: -3.0 ppg (-3.6 Road)
Last 10: 5-5 (margin -4.2)
Pistons: 22-13 (12-5 Home)
Margin: +0.5 ppg (+2.9 Home)
Last 10: 8-2 (margin +2.5)
Oppo research:
I feel like we play the Bobcats every week. This is only the third matchup between the two teams. This time around, they might have problems fielding a lineup. D.J. Augustin is out. Sean May is obese. Raymond Felton, Raja Bell and Matt Carrol are hobbled.
Of course, this won’t keep the Bobcats from making it a close game. The last time these two teams met, the Bobcats melted a 22 point fourth quarter lead to one before finally losing by four.
The Bobcats rely on a cadre of small guards to wear down defenses, but their lack of interior presence makes them an uneven team at best, and they have no perimeter game to speak of. When Raja Bell is one of your biggest scoring threats, you’re in trouble.
The Drama:
Yay. The return of small ball. Let’s all huff gun together, shall we?
Keys for Detroit:
Don’t play down to the competition: Small ball or no small ball, this should be a gimme. With a game tomorrow night, and the Pistons themselves hobbled, it would be valuable to get some rest.
Get Hamilton involved: Without Rip in the lineup, Iverson was left floundering on offense, leading to some horrendous starts. If we’re going to do the small ball thing, let’s at least distribute.
Give Sheed a break: That’s not really a key to this game, but there is no reason for him to play and risk further damage to his foot.
Question of the game:
With the first legitimate controversy since Big Ben’s refusal to enter a game, will the Pistons be able to take care of business this week?
By Kevin Sawyer
Clippers: 8-24 (3-13 home)
Margin: -6.4 ppg (-10.1 home)
Last 10: 3-7 (margin -7.1)
Pistons: 20-11 (8-6 road)
Margin: +1.1 ppg (-0.7 road)
Last 10: 8-2 (margin +4.4)
Oppo research:
Well, this should put the Sunday jinx meme to the test. The Clippers were a lottery team BEFORE Chris Kaman went down with injury. Today’s version will be playing without Zach Randolph, Baron Davis, Ricky Davis, and some other players whose absence actually makes them a better team.
At present, the Pistons are likely to face a starting lineup of Eric Gordon, Fred Jones, Al Thornton, Marcus Camby and Brian Skinner. That is, unless Camby is found this morning with his head in an oven, in which case the Clippers will look to Paul “Paxil” Davis to man the pivot.
This team really doesn’t have any offensive weapons. Gordon and Thornton are the “scorers” (defining that term loosely), and each has a PER in the 12s, though Gordon has shot the ball pretty well of late. When healthy, this is one of the worst offensive squads in the league. Now? Ouch.
That said, the Clippers do play relatively solid defense, thanks in no small part to Camby. With no other personnel capable of securing a rebound, Camby has gone berserk, averaging 19 rebounds per game in the absence of Randolph and Kaman, and garnered more offensive rebounds than the Phoenix Suns combined on Friday night.
So there, I said something nice. Now let me say something mean. The Clipper franchise shouldn’t exist.
The Drama:
With Detroit still thin at the frontcourt, Camby could put up the highest rebound total in a very long time.
Keys for Detroit:
NOTE: SINCE THIS IS A SUNDAY GAME, I AM REVISING MY ADVICE DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY.
Stay between your man and the basket: Before the game, or after a timeout, select one opposing player to defend. Then, work to stay between your man and the basket. This is the best way to prevent the offensive player from scoring. Remember, you play defense with your legs, not your hands. When the opposing player does shoot, put your hands in the air to contest the shot.
Practice sound shooting fundamentals: When taking a shot, square up to the basket. Make sure to bend your legs and your elbows, and use your offhand as a guide. If necessary, use the backboard, aiming for the square just above the rim.
Drink plenty of fluids: The game of basketball can take a lot out of you. It is vital that you consume enough fluids in the 24 hours prior to the game to avoid dehydration. During the game, consume small quantities of liquid to replenish fluids lost through expiration. Avoid drinking too many liquids during the game to avoid cramping.
Question of the game:
Is the Sunday jinx for real? Seriously, this is as bad of a squad as we will face all year. If we can’t win this one, we might as well count every Sunday game as an ‘L’ going forward.
Kings: 8-24 (2-13 road)
Margin: -9.5 ppg (-13.5 road)
Last 10: 2-8 (margin -13.5)
Pistons: 19-11 (11-5 home)
Margin: +0.9 ppg (+2.3 home)
Last 10: 8-2 (margin +4.2)
Oppo research:
The 8-24 record doesn’t really do justice to how poor this Kings squad really is. The team needed 17 points from Kevin Martin (just returned from injury) to beat a short-handed Clippers squad by two at home. At present, this is the worst team in the league.
That said, Kevin Martin is precisely the sort of player who gives the Piston defense fits, and we didn’t exactly light up the Kings when they were without Martin. Jason Thompson, Beno Udrih and Spencer Hawes all had nice games, even though none of them has played particularly well this season.
Hawes is out with an abdominal strain, which is a boon given that the Pistons are likely to be down two (Wallace and Dyess) in the front court. Without Hawes, and with Martin likely returning to the starting lineup, the Kings are unlikely to go big. But then, Brad Miller is unlikely to go 2-16.
The Drama:
I’ve got nothin’…
Keys for Detroit:
Go to the zone: The Kings are an awful perimeter team, so there is absolutely no reason to let Martin get into the lane. Expect to see some zone, plenty of Spellcheck, and a lot of wide open three point looks.
Keep contact to a minimum: The Kings are solid free throw shooters up and down their lineup. Ticky-tack fouls on their bigs are going to cost us points. This should be an interesting test for Amir, who could potentially see 30+ minutes tonight.
Take it to the hoop: The Kings are foul prone, slow on defense, and can’t defend the perimeter. Iverson and Stuckey should not hesitate to feed the Kings a stead diet of drive and dish. If those two on their game, this will be over early.
Question of the game:
Can’t we just have a good old-fashioned blowout? With a Western Conference swing on the horizon, including a cross country trip to Los Angeles for a Sunday matinee, it would be nice to get the starters some rest. The Pistons have only one victory of 15 or more this season. They had 26 such contests last year.
We’re going old school today — after weeks of being spoiled with Kevin’s awesome previews, all I’ve got a few sparse words before reminding you the ball tips at 3 PM on Fox Sports. Enjoy the game, and if you go out tonight, be safe. Thanks for spending another year with DBB, everybody. Leave your thoughts in the comments.
Nets: 15-16 (10-4 road)
Margin: -2.5 ppg (+1.5 road)
Last 10: 4-6 (margin -2.4)
Pistons: 18-11 (10-5 home)
Margin: +0.6 ppg (+2.5 home)
Last 10: 7-3 (margin +2.1)
Oppo research:
The Nets are the surprise team of the year. After doffing Richard Jefferson for Yi Jianlian, the Nets were thought to be tanking for LeBron. Alas, they’ve actually played pretty well, at least on the road. The Nets are one of the leagues best road teams, and one of the very worst home teams. Maybe the players have already made the mental move to Brooklyn.
The Nets’ offense pretty much consists of a bunch of big guys shagging balls for Devin Harris and Vince Carter. Harris’ astonishing season has been well covered, but Carter seems to be enjoying the freedom of being the second scoring option, putting up his best numbers in years.
And then there’s the rest. Brook Lopez is enjoying a solid rookie campaign, but paired with Yi and Bobby Simmons… That’s one lousy frontcourt. The Nets have had bad luck with big men, from Nenad Krstic’s injuries to losing DaSagana Diop to free agency, to Sean Williams forgetting how to play the sport in the offseason.
The Nets are a lousy defensive squad, and fail to guard the perimeter at all, allowing opponents to shoot 42% from three point range. The Nets use a long bench, with no player other than Carter and Harris, earning more than 30 mpg. It is not clear to me why this is so, since the Nets have a weak bench.
The Drama:
Devin Harris torched Detroit in Iverson’s first game as a Piston. Hopefully, that will be added motivation for the D to lock down on dribble penetration. Otherwise, things will get dramatic in a hurry.
Keys for Detroit:
Focus on Carter and Harris: In particular, harassing Carter on the perimeter and preventing Harris from getting into the lane. If you stop these guys, the Nets have no other offensive options.
Crash the boards: While NJs big men aren’t particularly skilled, they are decent rebounders, and that’s about all they do. McDyess and Amir should see heavy minutes keeping the Nets big men off the glass.
SHEEEEEED!: There’s no way NJ can keep up with him on the perimeter. Sheed should have the green light to light it up, as he’ll be open all day from three point range.
Question of the game:
With the arbitrary 3p starting time, will the Pistons be tricked into thinking it’s Sunday? If so, expect Devin Harris to drop score 67 points on 38-43 free throw shooting.
By Kevin Sawyer
Magic: 24-6 (11-3 road)
Margin: +7.5 ppg (+7.7 road)
Last 10: 9-1 (margin +11.8)
Pistons: 17-11 (9-5 home)
Margin: +0.4 ppg (+2.8 home)
Last 10: 6-4 (margin +0.3)
Oppo research:
Indeed, the team that didn’t give Detroit much of a fight in the playoffs last year has, without any substantive personnel changes, morphed into a powerhouse. The Magic have silenced critics who pointed to their early schedule by winning 11 of 12 against a slate that included the Lakers, Hornets, Spurs, Jazz and Blazers.
The biggest difference this year has been the inspired play of Jameer Nelson, who is averaging 20 ppg on 58% shooting in December, and a ridiculous 61% from three point range. His performance has been enough to offset Hedo Turkoglu’s predictable return to earth after last year’s excellent campaign.
Of course, the Magic still have Dwight Howard, who has established himself as a defensive force. Together with newly acquired defensive stopper Pietrus, he leads a team that allows a stingy 42.5% field goal percentage, all without fouling excessively. As a result, the Magic are the leagues third best defensive squad.
On the offensive end, the Magic offer few surprises. Howard on the post and TONS of three pointers.
The Drama:
Given his hot shooting stroke, maybe Jameer Nelson will focus on playing basketball instead of judo leg-sweeps. Chauncey plays for Denver, but I haven’t forgotten.
Keys for Detroit:
Guard Jameer Nelson: Nelson has benefited from the perception that Hedo Turkoglu is a greater offensive threat than he is. Nobody shoots 60% from three point range unless defenses are utterly ignoring them.
Ditch small ball: Irrespective of the system’s merits, it won’t work against this team. Prince has shown that he can stop Hedo Turkoglu, which will allow Detroit to stay on their defensive assignments. With Hamilton possibly out another game with injury, coach Curry might not have a choice.
Send Howard to the line: Given that the Magic average 1.28 points per shot, consider this the equivalent of an intentional walk. As usual, Howard is starting to wear down as the season progresses, so aggressive defense will also mean more minutes for Marcin Gortat, though the latter has acquitted himself nicely in limited minutes.
Question of the game:
I’ll defer to McCosky on this one. Will it be small ball or basketball in this one? Curry might be able to use Hamilton’s injury as an excuse to get one more look at what Detroit can do with a normal lineup. A win tonight would certainly help make a decision either way.
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