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NBA Draft Lottery: If Pistons get the first pick who should they draft?

2013-05-21T18:25:52Z

The Detroit Pistons are currently in the seventh position of the 2013 NBA Draft but tonight their fortunes could change for better or worse. The NBA Draft Lottery gives the Pistons a 3.6 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick. Lets say there is some magic in that lottery machine tonight and the Pistons win the first pick. Now lets say you're in charge. Whom do you select?

Sounds like a great poll question to me. One option that won't be available, sadly, is trading the pick. Why? Because trades are really hard to pull off and when we're living in a hypothetical reality people tend to imagine fantastic trades for their favorite team. Instead we have to deal with the cold, hard reality of the five or six players people seem to really like at the top of this draft class.

The candidates:

Nerlens Noel

Why he fits with the Pistons (via Kevin Sawyer):

Defense. Lot's of it. Noel's defensive numbers are off the charts against top tier competition. He easily led prospects in block rate, and is top three in terms of steals. And he did it without fouling at a particularly high rate. He has the potential to be a once-in-a-decade defensive talent. Those only come along once per decade!

Why he doesn't fit with the Pistons (via Mike Payne):

Obviously, he has a pretty remarkable talent. However, he doesn't fill a need in Detroit, he's already torn his ACL and it may take several years before he has the mass to man the NBA five. If Detroit didn't have Andre Drummond, he'd be a lot more attractive.

Ben McLemore

Why he fits with the Pistons (via Sean Corp):

Elite shooting. Efficient scoring. Just what the doctor ordered. Dude shot nearly 50 percent while taking 400 shots on the season. And his coach and teammates thought he was too tentative. In a lot of ways I feel like he is one of the more underrated No. 2 overall picks in recent years only because I think he is going to improve by leaps and bounds as he matures and gets more confident in his game.

Why he doesn't fit with the Pistons (via Shinons*):

Really, I'm probably the least enthused about McLemore. He's a scorer, that's it. Which would be fine if he were at least a prolific scorer - and he's actually barely more prolific than Oladipo this year. He disappears, isn't aggressive enough. So isn't he just a shooting guard version of Cody Zeller?

Anthony Bennett

Why he fits with the Pistons (via Kevin Sawyer):

A little bit of everything, and a lot of nothing. Bennett was a reasonably efficient shooter and a fairly prolific scorer. His rebounding rate was reasonable for his position, and his defensive stats project solidly, and he has decent range. The latter attribute gives him the potential to create matchup problems. He fits the mold of a stretch four, which is still en vogue in the NBA, I guess.

Why he doesn't fit with the Pistons (via Shinons*):

I don't like him. He feels like Charlie Villanueva, Michael Beasley, or Derrick Williams. Guys like him just never wind up being all that valuable. They tend to be defensive liabilities, not having the fluidity or ball-handling ability to use their athleticism to their advantage offensively, and just turn into shooters - yet not as good of shooters as a prospect who is a "pure shooter." In short, I'd take Erik Murphy ahead of him.

Victor Oladipo

Why he fits with the Pistons (via Mike Payne):

Efficient scoring from a wing player. Defense. Incredible nickname versatility. Victor Oladipo can potentially bring to Detroit nearly everything it needs from an off-the-ball wing player.

Why he doesn't fit with the Pistons (via Sean Corp):

His 3-point shooting. In his first two seasons at Indiana, Oladipo shot 30 percent and 20 percent, respectively. That suddenly shot up to 44 percent last season. Was it a blip or a new normal?

Trey Burke

Why he fits with the Pistons:

Burke is the national college player of the year and he earned the award based on production not reputation. He has great court vision and natural point guard instincts, but more than that he has a feel for how to navigate through defenses with the ball. He might not be a great athlete but he knows how to move and how to shake a defender. He is effective despite having not nearly the natural speed of, say, Brandon Knight to sight just one example totally at random.

Why he doesn't fit with the Pistons:

While Burke is a natural point guard if you draft him I'm not sure you can convince Jose Calderon to return to the team. And if Burke struggles out of the gate that means the Pistons are yet again relying on Brandon Knight or Rodney Stuckey to man the point position. That doesn't seem like a recipe for the kind of improvement the team expects to see.

Otto Porter

Why he fits with the Pistons:

He is like a swiss army knife. He provides a little of everything. He can shoot with range, he can cut to the basket, he can shoot the mid-range jumper. He's got a great combination of size, scoring skill and defensive awareness.

Why he doesn't fit with the Pistons:

He nearly doubled his 3-point percentage from his freshman to sophomore season. Can the new numbers be trusted? If he doesn't come to the NBA with a lights-out perimeter game then it will make the rest of his repertoire that much less effective.

Poll

Who should the Detroit Pistons draft if they receive the No. 1 pick?

NBA Draft Lottery 2013: Time, TV schedule and more

2013-05-21T14:34:28Z

The last time the Pistons picked seventh overall, where they have the best odds of picking this year (60 percent), they lucked out with Greg Monroe. That's a lottery win in a sense. On Tuesday night we'll find out where they'll pick Thursday, June 27.

Time: Tuesday, May 21, 8:30 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Pistons rep: Andre Drummond

Odds to winning

Team (record)	Number of combinations	Percent
Orlando (20-62)	250	25
Charlotte (21-61)	199	19.9
Cleveland (24-58)	156	15.6
Phoenix (25-57)	119	11.9
New Orleans (27-55)	88	8.8
Sacramento (28-54)	63	6.3
DETROIT PISTONS (29-53)	36	3.6
Washington (29-53)	35	3.5
Minnesota (31-51)	17	1.7
Portland (33-49)	11	1.1
Philadelphia (34-48)	8	0.8
Toronto (34-48)	7	0.7
Mavericks (41-41)	6	0.6
Utah (43-39)	5	0.5

Pistons 1st round draft history (last 10 years):

2012 - No. 9 - Andre Drummond
2011 - No. 8 - Brandon Knight
2010 - No. 7 - Greg Monroe
2009 - No. 15 - Austin Daye
2008 - No. 29 - D.J. White
2007 - No. 15 - Rodney Stuckey
2007 - No. 27 - Arron Afflalo
2006 - No 1st round pick
2005 - No. 26 - Jason Maxiell
2004 - No 1st round pick
2003 - No. 2 - Darko

It's going to be easier to get excited about mock drafts once the Pistons learn their exact draft slot this evening, but some of you might like to take a peek at Tom Ziller's latest at the SB Nation mothership. Assuming the Pistons stay at No. 7, he has Detroit picking a certain Michigan point guard:

7. Detroit Pistons: Trey Burke

I don't think Jose Calderon will stick around given that a new coach will be in place, Brandon Knight is being turned into a two-guard and Rodney Stuckey is always two seconds from a trade. So, yeah, Burke.

Report: Pistons interview Maurice Cheeks for head coaching job

2013-05-20T22:33:48Z

Add another name to the list of potential head coaches for the Detroit Pistons. According to Vince Ellis the Pistons have already interviewed Maurice Cheeks for the head coaching job.

Cheeks served as the coach of the Portland Trail Blazers from 2001-05 and the Philadelphia 76ers from 2005-08. He has served as a lead assistant with the Oklahoma City Thunder since the 2009-10 season.

Cheeks would fill the mandate of hiring an experienced coach with playoff experience but he's never exactly been considered anything more than average to slightly above average. In his eight seasons as a head coach he has compiled a 284-286 record, achieving three playoff appearances but never getting out of the first round. He has won 50 games or more just once, with the Blazers in 2002-03 in his second year as head coach. Since that time he has never finished above .500.

He is, of course, most famously known for this awesome bit of class and grace while coaching in Portland. Not sure it will help him get another job but it is great nonetheless.

NBA Draft 2013: Cody Zeller's DBB scouting report

2013-05-16T14:11:16Z

What would Zeller bring to the Pistons?

Shinons*: Brandan Wright is a trending favorite among DBBers as a free agency target. Zeller would bring many of the same qualities that Wright does. Efficient, versatile scoring with mediocre rebounding. The biggest difference is the defensive end, where Wright's length helps him as a shot-blocking threat. The only area where he really stands out is in getting to the line, which he does more than 7 times per game and converts 75% of the time.

Mike Payne: A productive offensive big man with room to grow. His ability to draw contact and convert well at the line makes him more valuable than he might appear at first glance.

Ben Gulker: If his game transitions to the NBA successfully, everything an NBA team would want in a big man. He scores the ball efficiently even while being responsible for creating his own shots, both from the post and facing up. He's great on the boards, and he blocks shots. He's also a very good free throw shooter for a big man, and he's excellent at getting to the line to boot. He's also got all that intangibly stuff the scouts like, and in this case, it's paid off big time on the court.

Sean Corp: A whirling dervish energy that is perfectly suited to a sixth-man role and could prove infectious to his teammates and help get the crowd pumped up. Think Walter Hermann, Jonas Jerebko or Will Bynum. He will play hard, he will play smart and he will find a way to get the ball into the basket. I'm not sure how others feel about him but I have a feeling I'm a bigger Zeller supporter than most. I just feel like he has the instincts and craftiness to score in the NBA and that his lack of strength and size won't be as much of an issue as people fear, at least on the offensive end. I feel like he could be a perfect sixth man in Detroit and those types of players have value. He attempted 259 free throws last season, one of the best marks for big men in college basketball. That tells me a lot about his basketball instincts.

Kevin Sawyer: Efficient scoring. As a bona fide first options, Zeller registered a solid 62% TS his sophomore year. Zeller has a sophisticated arsenal of offensive moves, and is adept at getting to the line. As a 20 year old 7 footer, he has the size and the time to develop into an even more dominating player on the offensive end.

Biggest red flag?

Shinons*: His tiny arms. When's the last time we've seen a legitimate seven footer with only a 6'8 wingspan? Still though, this could play out to be a positive though as he could be dubbed a T-Rex. Or perhaps Z-Rex?

Really though, combined with his lack of athleticism, it definitely impacts his finishing and rebounding ability and limits his upside at the next level.

Mike Payne: There aren't really any pronounced risks with Cody Zeller. He looks like a pretty effective package without the exciting shot-blocking and athleticism.

Ben Gulker: There are some legitimate questions about how well his game will translate to the NBA, seemingly derived from some concerns about his wingspan. At the NCAA level, this was unnoticeable; in almost every game he played, he was the most dominant big man on the floor by a wide margin. Obviously, we'll know more about his measurables shortly, but I'd argue it would be better to analyze how big he has played than how big he measures. Here's a quick plug for some statistical analysis I think is pretty good - Zeller ranks sixth overall.

Sean Corp: His lack of size, particularly his lack of lower body strength concerns me. I think he might get eaten alive by low-post players in the NBA. He doesn't seem to have the body type that is going to allow him to bulk up in a major way so he is destined to get pushed around down low, give up position and high-percentage scoring opportunities. That might prevent him from being a starter in the NBA but I do think there is a place for him on the bench and in the rotation.

Kevin Sawyer: His rebounding and defensive numbers were unremarkable, especially for someone his height. Team's should be concerned about his lack of improvement. Indeed, he seemed to demonstrate his eye-popping 67% TS from his freshman season was something of a fluke. While he cut down on fouls, he compensated by increasing turnovers. For someone whose value lies entirely in his offensive efficiency, that's a bad thing.

It's also really difficult to forget just how bad Tyler Zeller was this season, though that probably isn't fair?

On a scale of 1/10, how would you feel about Zeller joining the roster?

Shinons*: 4/10. When you watch Zeller, you don't see the appeal. You see him go for long stretches making no impact in any aspect of the game and when he does realize that he needs to assert himself, he does something awkward that results in him being blocked or falling weirdly. You shake your head. But you watch IU go on to win, and you check the box score and see that Zeller has 16 points on 10 shots, 8 boards, and a couple blocks, steals, and assists. Where did that come from?

Zeller's being underrated as a prospect. Indiana's record went to 10-21 and 12-20 before Zeller to 27-9 and 29-7 with him. He's not an exciting player, but he's effective.

Mike Payne: 4/10. He'd be a nice backup big man, but the Pistons should try to address that in free agency. Detroit would be wise to spend their draft pick on a position of need.

Ben Gulker: I'm going to go quite a bit higher than (I think) a lot of DBB'ers would go: 8/10. Here's why:

First of all, the stats suggest he's going to be a good NBA big man. Immediate production seems likely, starting-caliber production in time equally so. So even if my trade scenarios (detailed below) are fantasy, the worst-case scenario is a three-headed monster of a big man rotation up front. Obviously, the Pistons need to address shooting guard and small forward desperately, but as it stands, there isn't much depth behind Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe either. Zeller's athleticism grants him the versatility necessary to be successful at either big position depending on match ups, so he could spell either position with thoughtful rotation planning, and be paired with either Drummond or Monroe depending on match ups.

Now, the trade scenario. I'll be doing some more analysis on this later this spring, but here's the short version: all signs point to the Pistons being conservative in free agency this summer and retaining some of their cap space going into trade season so that they can absorb more contracts coming in than going out.

Typically, a player on a rookie-scale contract can only return a player on a similar contract; that won't apply to Detroit if Dumars does as he's hinted. In that scenario, it isn't difficult to imagine trade built around a lottery-caliber player like Zeller (say Zeller + Knight for fun) that brings back 2-3 players at positions of need, and maybe future draft considerations as well.

This would be the type of salary cap management that is making Daryl Morey a cult legend. Whether or not Joe has the freedom to pursue that type of long-viewed approach is unknown.

Sean Corp: 8/10. He could be the first big man off the bench right away (YHIHF). He does a lot of what Jonas Jerebko does but with more traditional power forward skills. And while he was never asked to shoot from the perimeter in college (only attempted 24 jump shots), he has a good shooting stroke and I think could add that to his arsenal in the NBA, which would help him utilize his quickness and driving ability against the much bigger players in the NBA. He might never be a starter in the NBA but that shouldn't disqualify him from being a top-10 pick in this draft. If my choice was between Zeller and Shabazz Muhammad or CJ McCollum I would probably pick Zeller.

Kevin Sawyer: 3. I'm not a fan. If you are going to go for a big man who scores efficiently, but doesn't rebound or block shots, my preference would be Kelly Olynyk, who led all prospects in shooting efficiency with a higher usage rate. At best, you've got Brook Lopez. Pass.

Now, your thoughts.

ESPN '30 for 30' on Detroit Bad Boys is coming

2013-05-16T05:02:56Z

The critically acclaimed ESPN series is about to get really close to home in a very good, Bad Boys way. Whatcha gonna do?

Our very own MF Matt Watson retweeted the news with an appropriate reaction:

Oh hell yes MT @richarddeitsch: Among the upcoming 30 for 30s: The Bad Boys (on the Detroit Pistons teams) ...
— Matt Watson (@mattwatson) May 14, 2013

(You know it's credible because it comes from a verified account!)

This is going to be an awesome documentary. I just hope the Red Panda and Robocop get shout outs.

We'll obviously update you when we know more information.

NBA rumors: Pistons to interview Brian Shaw

2013-05-16T04:22:13Z

According to Tom Leyden at WXYZ Channel 7, the Detroit Pistons have contacted Brian Shaw about an interview. The Pacers, as you know, are in the midst of a playoff run right now and none of their coaches are allowed to interview for other jobs during such, but the Pacers' assistant coach is expected to ultimately have a formal interview for the Pistons' vacancy.

Shaw has plenty of ties to Phil Jackson, who is consulting the Pistons on how to fill the position. If we're worried about Shaw's inexperience as a head coach, maybe we shouldn't be. Shaw could very well be the most qualified assistant in the NBA.

Shaw played with the three-peat Lakers coached by Jackson from 1999-2002 and was an assistant coach under Jackson during two other championships. Shaquille O'Neal once said Shaw was the teammate he most respected, and legend Larry Bird thought highly enough of Shaw to give him a courtesy interview in 2007 to help get his name out there. Shaw was considered for the Lakers gig following Jackson in 2011 and was offered -- before smartly turning down -- the Bobcats position last year. He's now in his second season helping the rising, defensive-minded Pacers.

The resume is definitely intriguing and a seal of approval from the Zen Master may be too hard to ignore.

What say you?

NBA Draft 2013: Nerlens Noel's DBB scouting report

2013-05-16T02:54:22Z

What would Nerlens Noel bring to the Pistons?

Shinons*: How would you like to have the most exciting team in the league? One that leads the league annually in blocks, steals, and rebounds? One that features a potentially historically good defense? Even better than the Bad Boys or Going to Work eras? That's how highly I think of Noel.

This guy put up a combined 6.5 blocks and steals. He is the best defensive playmaking prospect I'm aware of. Davis last year had 6.1. Before these two, the next best that I can think of was Jarvis Varnado, who put up 5.4 his senior year. This number, 6.5, it's unbelievable.

Mike Payne: A defensive force in the paint, a shot blocker of the purest form in a very wiry, fragile frame. Think Marcus Camby in the best case, Hasheem Thabeet without the resume in the worst case.

Sean Corp: An elite shotblocker, rebounder and defender. The best big man trio in the NBA. The best player in the 2013 NBA Draft. The ability to completely take away the paint from the opposing team. A high top fade that puts Iman Shumpert to shame.

Kevin Sawyer: Defense. Lot's of it. Noel's defensive numbers are off the charts against top tier competition. He easily led prospects in block rate, and is top three in terms of steals. And he did it without fouling at a particularly high rate. He has the potential to be a once-in-a-decade defensive talent. Those only come along once per decade!

Biggest Red Flag?

Mike Payne: The ACL injury doesn't help. His frame doesn't either-- he makes Anthony Davis look like DeJuan Blair.

Shinons*: Certainly, it's his ACL tear. He'll almost certainly be out past the All Star break, and it's always a risk any time you draft a player who's injured. Will he be back with the same explosiveness? I certainly think so, but it's definitely the biggest red flag that he comes with.

One might suggest that the potential of three big men worthy of max contracts would be the biggest. I think three franchise players would be a great problem to have.

Sean Corp: Dude tore his ACL. For a player that relies so much on their athletic ability anything that might rob him of that is a concern.

Kevin Sawyer: I think people are underestimating the knee issue. He's slated to miss much of next season recovering. From there, he'll still be on the rookie learning curve. Worse, it often happens that players who suffer injuries to one knee suffer a similar injury to the other. Say the other ACL goes his second season. A team might be investing four seasons in him, only to have another team clear cap room and swoop in with a huge offer.

There is also the curious lack of rebounding. He wasn't terrible, but his rebounding rate is on par with potential stiff Alex Len. That attribute can develop slowly in freshmen, however, and his athletic numbers and measurements indicate it's a matter if when, not if, he can dominate on the glass.

On a scale of 1/10, how would you feel about Nerlens Noel joining the roster?

Mike Payne: 5/10. Obviously, he has a pretty remarkable talent. However, he doesn't fill a need in Detroit, he's already torn his ACL and it may take several years before he has the mass to man the NBA five. If Detroit didn't have Andre Drummond, he'd be a lot more attractive.

Shinons*: An enthusiastic 10. I'm hoping like crazy that he's the guy who inexplicably falls this year, that teams scare themselves away over nonsense like the lack of pre-draft workouts or not getting the summer league. Noel can establish an identity for the Pistons as an elite defensive team with the best young frontcourt in the league. It's extremely unlikely to happen, but that's not going to stop me from getting excited over the thought.

Sean Corp: 6/10. I almost placed this in the red flag section but it fits here too. If you draft Noel could you ever confidently stick Andre Drummond and Noel on the court together at the same time? Neither has a jump shot or much of an offensive game other than being able to finish at the rim. The defenders of both players would just collapse toward the basket and take away the driving ability of both. That being said, Noel is a difference maker on defense and on the glass and the Pistons need a defensive minded big man to join their rotation.

Kevin Sawyer: 8. He doesn't fit a need, and the knee injury is of particular concern to the Pistons, who have the chance to make a real leap toward contention this year. For those reasons, he drops to 4th or 5th on my wish list. Still, if he's the guy who drops on draft night, it would be silly not to take a chance on him.

Now, your thoughts.

Andre Drummond, Kyle Singler named to NBA All-Rookie Second Team

2013-05-14T19:19:15Z

Andre Drummond and Kyle Singler were named to the NBA's All-Rookie Second Team on Tuesday, with Drummond receiving 10 first-team votes and Singler garnering a lone first-team vote.

It's ironic that both players were honored with all-rookie selections as they both expose the fundamental flaws of the voting results in different ways. Drummond was certainly one of the three most productive, most valuable rookies of the year while Kyle Singler was certainly not one of the 10 most valuable.

After a hot start Singler cooled off in a major way in the second half of the season. The only reason he was honored were the insane amount of minutes the Pistons played him, which propped up his scoring average.

Drummond was limited by both a seemingly arbitrary minute limit for the first half of the season and then missed 22 games due to injury just as he was about to enter the starting lineup. He blocked shots with abandon(second in block percentage for qualified rookies), siphoned up rebounds like a vacuum cleaner (highest rookie rebound percentage) and showed a great knack for both athleticism and touch around the basket (highest rookie field-goal percentage).

Even without a semblance of a jump shot and one of the most atrocious free-throw percentages ever, a lack of minutes and missing 20+ games, Drummond should have been in the conversation for rookie of the year along with Damian Lillard and Anthony Davis.

Instead he was largely forgotten and Lillard easily won the award. He also was the lone unanimous first-team selection. Joining him on the team are Davis, Bradley Beal, Dion Waiters and Harrison Barnes.

Joining Drummond and Singler on the second team are Jonas Valanciunas, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Tyler Zeller.

The duo joins teammates Brandon Knight and Greg Monroe as previous all-rookie honorees since 2011. And while it is a bummer that Drummond was snubbed for the first-team selection he so obviously deserved lets have a little perspective. Knight made the first team while the similarly snubbed Monroe had to settle for second-team honors. First-team members that year were Blake Griffin, John Wall, Landry Fields, DeMarcus Cousins and Gary Neal. Second-team honors went to Monroe, Wesley Johnson, Eric Bledsoe, Derrick Favors and Paul George.

Just like the 2011 class, I think the 2013 second-team class is going to have the last laugh on this one.