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Stat geeks everywhere love Amir Johnson

Count the Basket compares and contrasts the results of several advanced player rating systems, (including some I've never even heard of) ...

I took a look at seven popular player ratings. Two basic linear weights metrics based on boxscore stats - John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER), and Dave Berri’s Wins Produced (WP). Two metrics built on Dean Oliver’s individual offensive and defensive ratings - Justin Kubatko’s Win Shares (WS), and Davis21wylie’s Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). And three plus/minus metrics based on team point differential while the player is on the court - Roland Beech’s Net Plus/Minus (Net +/-), Dan Rosenbaum’s Adjusted Plus/Minus (Adj +/-), and Dan Rosenbaum’s Statistical Plus/Minus (Stat +/-). For the purposes of comparison I looked at the per-minute (or per-possession) versions of all these metrics (e.g. WP48 instead of WP, WSAA/48 instead of WSAA, WARPr instead of WARP).

... and found some pretty interesting results, including this:

Another eye-popper is seeing Amir Johnson, the 21-year-old Detroit power forward who’s been riding the pine in the playoffs, ranked first in the league in Adjusted Plus/Minus. This actually isn’t as great an anomaly as might be expected - Johnson rated rather well across the board. His consensus ranking was 15th. He was rated lowest by PER (64th), but he ranked 11th in Win Shares and 20th in Statistical Plus/Minus. Obviously one has to use some caution considering he played under 800 minutes on the season, but the fact that he rated well in several metrics could be a good sign for the future.

Consider him Detroit's secret weapon. So secret, in fact, the coaching staff hasn't even figured out how valuable he is. Oh well, there's always next year.

Muchas gracias to Shoals for both alerting me and spreading the word.