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Reasons To Get Drunk and Surly Tonight - 1st Round Edition

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I drafted the second half of my first round predictions, then realized, come Monday, that I had failed to post them, by which point the whole enterprise would have been a bit post-modern. Sorry about that. I'll be on the ball for round two.

But now is not the time for recriminations. Now is the time to drink wine from juice boxes and regret nothing!

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Came across an article on 82games citing the predicted value for each draft pick, based on historical models. The article features a handy chart, featuring the best picks and median picks for each draft slot. For pick #7:

Best picks: Kevin Johnson, Alvin Robertson

Median picks: Quintin Dailey, Roy Tarpley

How about pick #3?

Best picks: Michael Jordan, Grant Hill

Median picks: Kevin McHale, Charles Smith

In other words, pray for lottery balls.

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Last night, San Antonio grabbed a road game in their series against Dallas. I think the Spurs are likely to advance, which will bring about the inevitable "Dirk Nowitzki doesn't know how to win" narrative.

This is depressingly absurd, of course, but has Mark Cuban been hearing it enough that he might have a change of heart regarding his superstar? You know some of the metrics types have to be salivating. Dirk's skills will age nicely into his mid-30s, and he is far better than anyone thinks he is.

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Full disclosure: I am openly rooting for the Nuggets. So Suh me.

I was disappointed when they dropped game two at home. I had predicted that, given the strong home records of both teams, the home court advantage would largely hold.

At ESPN, John Hollinger made the point that the both teams have strong home records on account of their altitude and isolation. As such, since both teams play at similar altitudes, and are relatively close to each other, the home court advantage is minimized.

I hadn't thought of that, nor had I considered the consequence of this logic. I have casually observed an especial home-court benefit for high-altitude teams, but doesn't that also mean that Utah and Denver should post a better record than other teams in the league?

If so, how many games does this advantage mean? Has a study been done on this issue?

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So, Kevin Garnett gets suspended, and the Celtics blow Miami out of the water? Is this a typical Celtics early start, or is Boston a different team? We'll find out in game three.

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Ndamukong Suh used the word "collaboration" in his post draft speech. He's an instant star. I hope nobody ever nicknames him, so announcers have to call him by his full name every time. Donkey Kong is obvious and dumb. Don't do it.

Oh, basketball, right...

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So, the NCAA Tournament is expanding... To 68 teams. So what was with all that 96 team talk? Was that just a Trojan Horse to sell an expansion that would otherwise have been unpopular? Is 96 teams the new Harriet Miers?

If so, I find this unnecessary. The expansion of the tournament to four channels (nice move Turner Broadcasting) is sufficient to generate excitement.

Still. Credit where credit is due. Nice play, NCAA.

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Get it on in the comments section!