Update: It's official. The Pistons will have the 8th overall pick.
The journey of a thousand miles begins with one step, and for the Detroit Pistons, the first step in their journey back to respectability takes place tonight during the 2011 NBA Draft lottery, which kicks off at 8:30 PM ET (ESPN).
The most likely scenario will be for the Pistons to head into next month's draft with the seventh overall pick, but as you can see in the odds below, there's roughly a 15 percent chance they'll move into the top three. (Of course, the flip-side is true -- if any of the teams currently slated to pick from the No. 8-13 spots move up, Detroit would slide down accordingly, perhaps all the way to 10th. But you know how this works, so I'll refrain from explaining doomsday scenarios.)
Here are the odds for each team in the lottery, courtesy of NBA.com:
Team |
Record |
Chances |
1st Pick |
2nd Pick |
3rd Pick |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 17-65 | 250 | 25% | 21.5% | 17.76% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 19-63 | 199 | 19.9% | 18.8% | 17.11% |
| Toronto Raptors | 22-60 | 156 | 15.6% | 15.73% | 15.57% |
| Washington Wizards | 23-59 | 119 | 11.9% | 12.59% | 13.29% |
| Sacramento Kings | 24-58 | 76 | 7.6% | 8.44% | 9.49% |
| Utah Jazz (from NJ Nets) | 24-58 | 75 | 7.5% | 8.34% | 9.39% |
| Detroit Pistons | 30-52 | 43 | 4.3% | 4.94% | 5.78% |
| Cavaliers (from Clippers) | 32-50 | 28 | 2.8% | 3.26% | 3.88% |
| Charlotte Bobcats | 34-58 | 17 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.41% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 35-47 | 11 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.58% |
| Golden State Warriors | 36-46 | 8 | 0.8% | 0.95% | 1.15% |
| Utah Jazz | 39-43 | 7 | 0.7% | 0.83% | 1.01% |
| Phoenix Suns | 40-42 | 6 | 0.6% | 0.71% | 0.87% |
| Houston Rockets | 43-39 | 5 | 0.5% | 0.59% | 0.72% |
No matter what happens tonight, we'll spend the next several weeks analyzing, hypothesizing and prognosticating what the Detroit Pistons could, should and will do come draft day June 23. In the meantime, Mike Prada got the ball rolling at the SBN mothership with a look at the Pistons' current needs -- give it a look.
And with that, your open thread is open. Now your thoughts.