Advanced Stats Snapshot: Monroe snubbed and Macklin's good (?) edition

The Pistons are playing their best basketball of the season. After winning three consecutive games, the Pistons find themselves at third to worst in the Eastern Conference, but only four games (in the win column) out of the eight seed. In absolute terms, four games may not seem insurmountable. Relatively speaking, this team has managed to win only seven times in twenty-seven tries. Winning four games, in other words, isn’t that simple.

In any case, I jumped on the Unibrow/Sullinger bandwagon a long time ago, and fortunately for likeminded Pistons fans, the statistical production of this group bodes well for that outcome. If current efficiency differentials hold, this team will be expected to finish the season 14-52, or squarely in the mix for a top-three pick.

Here’s a quick peek at how three of the most popular advanced metrics allocate the (lack) of Pistons success this season. My thoughts after the jump, yours in the comments. (Use the Wide view to see the table fully)

There won’t be many surprises to the Pistons faithful here. Frank is trying to cut steak with a plastic butter knife from Qdoba that broke in half when he took it out of the wrapper. As Mike Payne has observed several times over the course of the season, the Pistons are getting blown out so often that Frank rarely gets the opportunity to out-coach the opposition. The individual numbers illustrate that fact.

For Wins Produced/48 and Win Shares/48, "average" is .100. For PER, "average" is 15. Frank can’t even field an "average" starting lineup, by these metrics, much less a full rotation. In other words, no matter who Frank starts, brings off the bench, or benches, the Pistons are almost always expected to lose based on efficiency differential and the metrics derived from them.

Two other quick points, the first about the All Star reserves and the second about Vernon Macklin.

Many Pistons fans believe that Greg Monroe was snubbed from the All Star reserves. I get the sentiment.

However, by Wins Produced and Win Shares, Hibbert wasn’t a bad selection. Monroe has a slight edge by both metrics, true, but Hibbert is having a career year that is contributing to Indiana’s rebirth as a franchise. I would love to have seen The Moose win out, but it’s perfectly understandable that the coaches would select a player like Hibbert from a team like Indiana. Deserved or not, players playing for good teams often get the nod.

Additionally, Ryan Anderson is probably an even bigger snub as far as big men in the East. Dude is having a brilliant season for Orlando that has been overshadowed by Dwight Howard’s drama. I’d have selected him over Chris Bosh or Roy Hibbert in a heartbeat. Arguably, he’s been Orlando’s most important player.

And of course, Tyson Chandler wouldn't be an All Star. He was only the dominant center for last year's championship team who continues to play brilliant basketball.

That said, Moose’s time will come. My fear for Moose’s sake has been that his lack of flash won’t get him the attention his production says he deserves. This year, perhaps that factored in to the All Star decisions in a small way. But his brilliant numbers can’t be overlooked indefinitely. Averaging a double double is amazing for anyone, and lest we forget, Monroe is still only twenty-one years old. Twenty one years old, four years away from when players tend to hit their primes. Franchise cornerstone now, All Star in the future, guarnasheed.

On to Macklin.

Ultimately, I think Mike Payne is likely right about Macklin. Macklin put up some ugly numbers in college, he’s relatively old for a rookie, and he hasn’t established himself as a rotation player in a depleted Pistons front court. He’s probably not an NBA-caliber player.

But his per minute numbers have been good, and I would say he has looked as good as front court player not named Monroe when he’s had the chance.

Yes, super small sample size. Yes, garbage minutes against other team’s C squads.

But what can it possibly hurt to play him?

If his college performance is ultimately the indicator of the player he is, no worries. He can be waived this summer when warranted, and we won’t accidentally win too many games to lower the odds of a high draft pick. But if he has managed to become the exceptionally rare player who is better as a twenty-five year old rookie than he ever was as a collegiate player, wouldn’t we all want to know that for sure? For all his flaws, he is a big, bruising, blue collar guy that on paper would be a great fit in a big man rotation built around Monroe.

Random question of the day: why does it feel like the Pistons have only played against the Nets and the Bucks?