We're back!* If you are interested in reading up on my first round recommendations, or are confused as to why I'm starting my big board at number 31, click here to assuage all concerns.
Some points:
- In the first round, I'd be looking for reasons not to draft players. I want to avoid a bust. In the second round, I'm looking for a reason to draft a player. There is a little more creativity involved, and I am somewhat more interested in hearing about measurements, intangibles and the like.
- Not smoothness, though. I wouldn't waste the 60th pick on smoothness. There is no correlation between being smooth and being a good NBA player. None.
- I have not acquired any acumen in assessing European players since last week. We will know who the good Euro is once the Spurs have made their selection.
- Yes, there are players dominating the various mock drafts that I do not believe should be drafted at all based on their performance. I didn't forget anybody. That said, I only did research on about 110 players or so, so if I overlooked a Latvian fellow or two, point that out in the comments.
- Anyone pretending to have seen Eric Griffin play is lying. I'm not sure he or his school exist. In fact, I had to knock him down a few spots on account of that very possibility.
- I have not acquired any acumen in assessing European players since last week. We will know who the good Euro is once the Spurs have made their selection.
31. Terrence Ross
Ross is overvalued on most boards, but he isn’t a bad player. He is competent in every category, but nothing particularly screams “draft me”. He has the versatility and the athleticism to defend both wing positions, and he’ll probably earn his minutes that way. It wouldn’t be unprecedented for him to emerge as an offensive talent, though it is unlikely, given his efficiency numbers.
32. Andrew Nicholson
Monster scoring numbers with extremely high efficiency from the Power Forward position have me very interested. The rebounding numbers are so-so, however, and I don’t think the shot blocking will transition well to tougher (and taller) competition. Advanced metrics are off the charts, and he could be a steal.
33. John Jenkins
Pretty much a mortal lock to be a solid three point specialist, Jenkins brings absolutely nothing else to the table. That’s the difference between him and, say, Doron Lamb, as I see it. Still, not sure he shouldn’t go in the first round based on the shooting alone.
34. Dusan Cantekin
He’s huge! He also rebounds and runs well. Perfect draft and stash fodder. Draft him now, and sign him when he finally gets his bone marrow transplant so he can stop growing.
35. Miles Plumlee
Once he got the foul situation somewhat under control, Plumlee established himself as a legitimate prospect and a true center. He took a major step up his senior year, and so the “project” factor isn’t quite so daunting. He’s perfect for any team looking for a backup center, and could move up the rotation.
36. Hollis Thompson
That sharp dip is TS% (64% to 57%) and steals, combined with the uptick in turnovers, has me concerned. Scouting reports question his ability to defend at the NBA level, so that’s strike two. Still, I think you take a flier on a 6’8” guy who can potentially knock down 40% of his threes.
37. Jeff Taylor
He’s 23, and I don’t like that. I’m also not sure I trust his 3P% since it came out of nowhere. On the other hand, if his stats hold up, there is a good chance a team can simply plug him into the rotation. That’s not worth a first rounder, but a contender should take a look here.
38. Meyers Leonard
I don’t get the love for this guy. I understand he’s a true center, but his rebounding numbers scream undersized power forward, and his block to foul ratio is bleak. That said, he showed enormous improvement during his sophomore year, and if you are going to go the project route, that’s what you want to see.
39. Ricardo Ratliffe
How did Missouri lose any games when nobody on their team missed any shots? Ratliffe’s 70% (!) TS is reason alone to take a stab here. That he improved dramatically his sophomore year is another. He is, however, undersized, and his shot blocking and rebounding numbers reflect that. His profile, though, is rather similar to that of Carlos Boozer, and that’s not nothing.
40. Mike Scott
He’s been playing for Virginia since the Pistons were actually good, so there isn’t a lot of upside here. That said, he was a very efficient, prolific scorer playing against top-tier competition. If we were 20 years old, he’d be a lottery pick, and he’s almost certainly worth a look at this point.
41. Papa
I’m typing Kostas Papanikolaou once, and that’s it. Papa has some nice athletic numbers against Italian figure skaters, Latvian thyroid-monsters and former Pistons draft picks. He seems born to be a Spur.
42. Zack Rosen
Invites Jeremy Lin comparisons, with his speed, Ivy League pedigree and evangelicalism. Rosen put up pretty prolific numbers, and is wowing scouts in workouts. He is also doing a nice job of branding himself with his online diaries and such. I could see him being a Lindsey Hunter type teams bring off the bench to disrupt the other team’s game. I could also see him having a pretty entertaining blog.
43. Jeremy Lamb
Any team that drafts Lamb had better hope his awful shooting and failure to get to the basket were the product of a lack of experience and poor shot selection. Really, though, he is still coasting on his NCAA Tournament performance from two seasons ago. I’m pretty certain he’ll be a dud, but he has great measurements and a good shooting touch in a vacuum.
44. Reggie Hamilton
There are good reasons to believe his numbers won’t translate at the NBA level. At 6 ft., I don’t think he has the size to get to the line as much as he did, and there’s a good chance he struggles to get his shot off against tough competition. The high turnover rate tells me he might not be able to run the point. With all those caveats, the numbers still mean he should be drafted.
45. Fab Melo
What’s the point of being 7 ft. tall if you don’t rebound? The other Melo’s rebounding rate was less than that of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He did get a lot of blocks, though they were accompanied by a nearly equal number of fouls, and he is a true center. You could do worse for a project, but I think he is unlikely to make an NBA rotation.
46. Kostas Sloukos
He’s an excellent shooter who can be effective at the point without turning the ball over. Europe is what it is, but he looks like a solid backup point guard to me.
47. TyShawn Taylor
He got much more aggressive on offense his senior year without sacrificing any efficiency, which is promising. However, he isn’t great at any one thing. By my lights, he’s basically guaranteed to be the 11th best player on any given team. He’ll fill out a roster, but I’m not expecting much else.
48. Mitchell Watt
This year’s Walter Sharpe? Watt was a rotation guy for a non-descript team until he was diagnosed with a hard-to-spell (but curable) neuromuscular disorder, at which point he became a 20-10 guy per 40 minutes. It’s not like he led Buffalo to a final four appearance or anything, but there is a very real reason to believe there is upside here, given that he’s been playing at 100% for all of 18 months.
49. Cameron Moore
The talent is there, but the shot selection was just hideous. He needs polish, and that just isn’t something we should be saying about a four-year senior. That said, he’s only 21 still, and the fundamental numbers tell the story of a player who can be productive at the NBA level.
50. Herb Pope
You have to love finding this caliber of rebounder this deep in the draft, especially when they can play a little defense. That said, his offensive efficiency leaves something to be desired, and he’s undersized to boot. Oh, and there’s the “history of life-threatening heart ailments” thing. Could be a very nice value, and I could see a contender taking a stab late in the second.
51. Harrison Barnes
To be clear, the dude has done nothing in college that makes me thing he is any good. However, given his size and athleticism, it’s worth a very late pick, just in case he was in the wrong program for him. Still, his 53% TS and weak athletic stats have me wondering if he should be drafted at all.
52. Bernard James
He put up nice rebounding, blocked shot and efficiency numbers. He would be a potential late first rounder if he weren’t 27 years old. He is, though, which means he probably has about 2-3 seasons of peak basketball left. Of interest only to immediate contenders, but they would do well to give him a look.
53. Quincy Acy
A very efficient (if not prolific) scorer, there is a big question as to whether he can defend the four in the NBA. Check that, there really isn’t a question. He can’t. To which, if people are willing to look at Perry Jones (who didn’t do anything in college) at the three, why not see if Acy can hack it? His defensive numbers were palatable, and he has the perimeter game to make the transition, it seems. My gut says he'll stick one way or the other.
54. Festus Ezeli
He is Fab Melo with less upside, since he is 22. He’s got a lot of people excited, it seems like. I don’t see why. If there’s anything I hate more than shooting guards who cannot shoot, it is big men who cannot rebound.
55. John Shurna
If he can play the three, I like him as a three point specialist. I’m not convinced he’ll be as lousy on defense as everyone says. He made some nice strides in terms of steal and block rates while committing fewer fouls his senior year.
56. Garret Stutz
Has to be worth a pick on the size and rebounding alone. There is reason to be concerned that he won’t be able to get looks on offense against tougher competition, since he can’t jump. Every time this guy takes a three, he kills your team, and he seems so inclined. That said, he is headed in the right direction, and should be a good fifth big on the right team.
57. Charlie Westbrook
A bit of a wild card, as he seems to be a bit behind most players his age on the learning curve, but Westbrook brought some nice scoring and athleticism last season. Like many other players here, he put up big numbers against weak competition, and his efficiency numbers on the low end of what I consider draft-worthy. Still, at this point, it’s guys like Westbrook or guys who have proven they can’t play at the next level.
58. Devoe Joseph
Upon transferring to Oregon, Joseph became a pretty efficient scorer (60% TS). I like his size if he can play the point, and there might be some upside in spite of his age if he has matured since his time at Minnesota.
59. Eric Griffin
Efficient scoring, solid rebounding, and good (though not great) shot blocking are worth a look. But yeah, he played for Campbell, which I had honestly never even heard of. He has been getting some solid reviews in workouts, which is what you want to see from a low-major prospect.
60. Marquis Teague
Outside of a solid tourney run, there isn’t much reason to be excited about Teague, who simply cannot shoot well enough to play the point. For someone who did not score, his turnover rate was pretty ridiculous. He’s still young, and considering his tourney run constitutes a substantial portion of his minutes played, he should probably be drafted. I just can’t see a reason to be excited about him.
* - Employing the use of the royal we.