When the Pistons win....When the Pistons lose...

Following up on an earlier post in which more shots by Brandon Jennings correlated with fewer Pistons' wins, I've taken a new look at what the numbers are saying.

Once again, Smith's tendency to launch lots of shots doesn't seem to have much impact on the W/L front.

0-10shots 2 and 3
11-14shots 5 and 5
0-14shots 7 and 8

15-19shots 5 and 5
20+shots 2 and 4
15+shots 7 and 9

Basically, this is a slightly below .500 team, whether Smith shoots 8 times or 27.

A lot of us have been calling for more Monroe shots. With the usual correlation does not necessarily mean causation caveat, the Pistons fare no better when Monroe gets more than his season average of 11.5 shots than they do when he shoots less.


0-11shots 8 and 10
12-15shots 5 and 5
16+shots 1 and 2
12+shots 6 and 7

The X-factor seems to be Jennings. It's getting to the point where once he's put up his fifteenth shot of the game, a loss will ensue. Conversely, 4-0 when he's shot ten times or fewer.

0-10shots 4 and 0
11-14shots 5 and 4
0-14shots 9 and 4
15-19shots 2 and 6
20+shots 2 and 6
15+shots 4 and 12

Jennings is clearly a much better offensive player than Smith, so why is more Jennings shooting seemingly more damaging than Josh Smith hoisting the ball in the air whenever he wishes? My guess is that it's because Jennings *could* play a positive role in this offense. Smith is pretty much Smith. Yeah, when he takes more shots, then someone else gets fewer. But I'm not convinced that anyone else on this team is good enough to demand the dominant role in the offense.

Jennings, however, has shown the ability to open the floor and get others good looks. The much-maligned eye test indicates that Jennings spends a lot of time dribbling out the shot clock and never really looking to get the ball inside.

In short, my new theory is that the "good Josh Smith" might add a couple of wins to what we are seeing. The "good Brandon Jennings" might add a half-dozen or more.

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