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Analyzing the Trade Market for Detroit: Let's Make a Deal Portland

Portland is another team that desperately needs to clear their books. To be blunt, they are in the worst financial shape in the Association. Outside of Dame and CJ, they have handed out some major coin to guys that flat out did not deserve it. They did manage to get rid of Allen Crabbe's deal in the offseason, but there are still more than a few bad deals they need to try and rid themselves of. Whether or not they will be able to do it...that's another story. Let's take a look:

Damian Lillard $26,153,057

C.J. McCollum $23,962, 573

Evan Turner $17,131,148

Maurice Harkless $10,162,922

Meyers Leonard $9,904495

Al-Farouq Aminu $7,319,035

Ed Davis $6,352,531 (expiring)

Noah Vonleh $3,505,233 (expiring RFA)

Zach Collins $3,057,240

Jusuf Nurkic $2,947,305 (expiring RFA)

Shabazz Napier $2,361,360 (expiring)

Pat Connaughton $1,471,382 (expiring)

Caleb Swanigan $1,465,920

Jake Layman $1,312,611

C.J. Wilcox (two-way contract)

Wade Baldwin (two-way contract)

Total Team Payroll: $122,197,920 (serious how is their GM not fired already?!)

Detroit should target:

#1 McCollum

#2 Harkless

#3 Davis

#4 Vonleh

#5 Connaughton

Current State of the Trailblazers

As of 1-21-2018 the Blazers are 25-21 and sit in 6th place out West. That seems pretty admirable considering the level of competition in the Western Conference now, but it is also super deceptive when you look at that standings and realize the 5th place Thunder are 26-20 and the 9th place Nuggets are an even 23-23. In that group of teams are also the Pelicans and the Clippers and the Jazz do not sit that far out in 10th place at 19-27. Oh and they've been playing without Rudy Gobert as well. My point with all this being that although Portland still remain in the top 8, they are only a 5-10 game losing streak from falling out fast.

This write up is going to be longer because the success on the court is almost irrelevant to whether or not they will make a move because they have to unload salary to avoid the luxury tax. Now, in a perfect world, Portland would laugh away any and all teams calling about Dame or CJ, but this is the real world where Neal Olshey didn't meet a role player he didn't want to pay. This puts Portland in a very tough spot. Do they ride out this team and basically waste two to three years of Dame and CJ until they can clear their books for another superstar (while they also say as many prayers in as many religions as possible that one of their draft picks become that next superstar)? Or do they look at trading one of those guys to clear the books and get some picks in the mean time? Maybe they are not contemplating that this season, but it seems their owner is running out of patience and they are having a harder and harder time sneaking into that eighth spot out West every year. Really we all should be routing for the Pelicans, the Jazz, and the Clippers because their continued success guarantees the Blazers will not make the playoffs and that greatly increases the chances the owner is open to moving Dame or CJ. Hit me up in the comments about who you would prefer.

On another side note, anyone on this site that wants to argue for Evan Turner or Meyers Leonard to become a Piston, please just stop and find another team because you must hate this one if you want either of those contracts. Turner is making more than Reggie, so he would be the second highest paid guy on the roster. And Leonard is making more than Avery Bradley currently, so he would be the fifth highest paid guy on the roster. Normally I don't flat out refuse trades, but these are two rare exceptions because not only are they way too high a number for either guy, but both guys are on increasing deals that end after the 2020 season. These would effectively kill the financial future of this team for the next four years.

Pistons Players of Interest to Portland

Much like Charlotte, it is not a joke when I say anyone making less then they're top paid player. Two words people: salary relief. Any functional player they can insert into their roster that makes less than Al-Farouq Aminu would be heaven sent to them.

But, as far as the holes in their roster it would definitely have to be at the power forward spot first and foremost followed by the 2 and the 1. They run a cavalcade of bodies at the 4 between Aminu, Mo Harkless, Noah Vonleh, and (I can't believe they still believe in him at this spot) Meyers Leonard. None of these guys score, defend, or rebound all that well. They each fill in a niche at the 4, but there is no all around, consistent guy for that spot. Pat Connaughton is the only other listed 2 guard other than CJ so that is a problem. And, Napier is the only point guard behind Dame. He has definitely improved his game and looks like a good backup, but that is also a major problem for Portland since he's on a one year deal and they can't re-sign him and avoid the luxury tax without first unloading one of those big contracts.

This leads me to believe the Piston players of most interest to Portland are Henry, Tolliverse, Galloway, Bullock, Bradley, and even though I don't think the 3 is of huge concern for them Stanley just because he gives them another young, cheap asset to develop. They would also have obvious interest in Tobias and Kennard, but they are off limits in my mind. Henry and Tolliverse can give them range, rebounding, offense and defense in Tolliverse's case their starters don't have. Galloway, Bullock, and Bradley give them shooters to play off Dame and CJ's great ability to get others open. They also give them defense that is sorely lacking from the 2 guard spot.

The Most Realistic Deal

Portland receives: Avery Bradley and Henry Ellenson (total of $10,589,789)

Detroit receives: Maurice Harkless and a 2018 1st round pick (total of $10,162,922)

Portland is able to get another big contract off their books and it is also a guy that has weirdly fallen out of favor in the lineup after having a strong season last year. Seriously they have started Evan Turner at the 3 since 12-09-2017 and refuse to play Harkless at the 4 even though he played very well in that spot the previous two seasons. I think Harkless was dealing with injuries in mid-December as he missed 6 games during that time, but the team has not played him as much since his return so the writing is already on the wall that he is on the outs there.

Detroit meanwhile unloads two guys that don't fit into their future anymore. Bradley hasn't moved the needle and is not worth a big payday. Now that we are past the halfway point of the season—and thanks to the great statistical analysis of guys like my man Crosseyed—it's clear that Bradley is inefficient and not to be relied upon as an offensive centerpiece. And SVG just flat out refuses to play Henry so SVB uses him to bring in someone who is a good defender and is much more athletic.

Portland gets major salary relief, a defender capable to frustrating Steph and Russ out West, and another young 4 to stick in the rotation

Bradley is a rental, no doubt, for them but he is going to fit a major need in the meantime. It is going to be difficult to navigate the minutes between the three guards now, but Bradley did weirdly play the 3 in Boston and I could see the Blazers doing something similar with a lineup of Dame-CJ-Bradley-Aminu-Nurkic. It's not going to stop the Warriors, but it's a good experiment before Bradley comes off the books.

I thought they would be playing Zach Collins at the 4, but it looks like they have only run him at center so Henry can come in right away in their rotation. I think He and Collins are the mirror images of each other as Collins is a defensive center with little offensive skills and Henry is an offensive power forward with little defensive skills. They are a great young pair to develop in that second unit.

Detroit gets a lengthy defender who can go back to playing the 4 where he had more success and they get another draft pick.

Let's take a look at Harkless' numbers so far this season:

5.4 ppg, 0.7 apg, 2.7 rpg, 0.7 spg, 0.8 bpg

50.5% from 2pt, 33.9% from 3pt, and 70.6% from the FT line

All this translates to advanced stats of 52.9% True Shooting, 4.7% Assist Percentage, 13.4% TO Percentage, and 12.6% Usage. Not very flattering stats I admit. But, again, the past two seasons he was in a role where he was able to be the defensive 4 that switched on everything rather than being stuck out on the perimeter and being asked to be a one-on-one guy. Just look at his numbers from last season when he was in this role all year:

10.0 ppg, 1.1 apg, 4.4 rpg, 1.1 spg, 0.9 bpg

57.2% from 2pt, 35.1% from 3pt, and 62.1% from the FT line

This saw his advanced numbers boast a stellar 57.0% True Shooting Percentage. He also had a 5.9% Assist Percentage, 11.2% TO Percentage, and 15.2% Usage. At 6'9" and 215 pounds he is better suited for the 4 spot because of his length. I mean, look at those rebounding numbers from last year to this one and you'll get a glimpse of the Blazers wasting him out on the perimeter. Also, his ability to switch at the 4 is super-underrated and gave the Blazers one good defender. Why Terry Stotts and the coaches now stubbornly go with Evan Turner at the 3 and Aminu at the 4 is anyone's guess. They've slashed his minutes from 28.9 per game last year to 20.5 this year. Hard to get in a rhythm when that happens. Plus, although Harkless' 3pt percentage is down this year, look at his shot chart from last year and you will see he is a good shooter above the breaks and not in the corners. This is actually a very good thing for the basketball geometry of this team as guys like Tobias, Bullock, Galloway, Tolliverse, Stanley, and even Ish have a favorite corner where they hit at a high level and Harkless can pull more defenders away by hitting out above the breaks and at the top. Oh and on top of all this, Harkless is still only 24 years old so he is still developing.

But keepin' it real, Portland's gotta include a 1st rounder to take on a guy not earning his money. Harkless has taken a step back whether or not it is due to the team misusing him and the Pistons need to be compensated for taking one of those bad contracts off their hands while also giving them an expiring and a young asset that fits into their rotation perfectly. Anytime there is a team desperate to unload big contracts that is the time to milk that team for extra draft picks because they have little to no leverage. If they are REALLY in need of salary relief then they gotta pay the other team to take on a deal they hate.

Now, this is not the best deal I think the Pistons could potentially get out the Blazers, but I think Portland has to look like they are not making the playoffs or improving in order for them to reach a new higher level of concern. Unfortunately, this might mean they won't do anything drastic until the offseason. I'll hit you all in the comments about the conditions and the potential deal. Let me know what you think of this one and please SVG, Dre, Tobias, and Co start showing some discipline and consistency!

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