FanPost

Determining the Value of the Pistons' Players: Jon Leuer

Jon Leuer is a tough guy to evaluate—and I don't just mean when it comes to determining his value. He can shoot the 3, but not too much. He is a power forward, but he might be a better fit as a backup center. He's not making a ton of money on a declining contract, but he's an expensive backup. So let's just jump right into where he fits on the roster currently.

Leuer has to be the 7th man. I mean pure economics dictates that. This is why I think the starting lineup will be Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, Reggie Bullock, Blake, and Dre. Any lineup where Bullock and/or Kennard comes off the bench bumps Leuer down the rotation and that is bad news for the team as Leuer is making $19,510,724 this season and next. The team should not want to sit someone they are paying that much, and if he can't be in the mix to be your 6th or 7th man then it sinks his trade value. And I say 7th man as he is not going to supplant Ish as long as Ish remains on the team. I still do believe in Leuer as a 6th or 7th man, though, as he showed to be a good reserve throughout his career. He also showed the ability to shoot the 3 in stints with the Grizzlies and the Suns. Pairing him in a second unit with a point guard who has an easy time creating open looks for shooters in Ish and overlapping his minutes with other guys that can create space like Kennard, Bullock, and GR3 would help him a lot and create some good spacing for the team.

But when one analyzes his game it is pretty inconsistent and limited. The number one reason (I suspect) he was brought to Detroit was to provide spacing at the 4, but he hasn't shown the ability to do that consistently. He's been in the NBA 7 seasons now and he's only been able to shoot above 33.3% from three-point land in 2 of those seasons. And in the one full season he played here in the D, his ability to hit the long ball was all over the map. Perhaps SVG putting him in the starting lineup and then pulling him out had something to do that you say. Well, I'm not going to say that it shouldn't be factored in to the equation, but the numbers pre-starting weren't amazing either. As a matter of fact, his ability to even hit 1 three-pointer per game did not tell the story of a stretch big. He appeared in 75 games during the 2016-17 season, starting 34. Before starting he posted 11 games of shooting 0% from 3 and he also posted 3 games where didn't even attempt a single shot from distance. Once Van Gundy moved him into the starting lineup he had 15 games where he again shot 0% from 3 and another 5 games where he did not take one single shot from downtown. And in the in-between games when he was sent back to the bench he had 3 games where he did not shoot a three-pointer at all and another 3 games where he shot a big fat 0% from long range. So in total he had 40 games where he either could not hit a 3 or did not even try to. That means in over half of the games he appeared in he provided the team with absolutely no spacing. That is a MAJOR problem for Leuer and for his value as a player. Because, I mean, let's face it. If he doesn't provide a team with consistent shooting from deep to give the offense more spacing, what else does he bring to the table? He's a solid defender, but he's too flat footed and slow to switch on to smaller more athletic players. He can rebound, but his career average total rebound rate of 13.3% is in the middle of the pack bordering on bad when it comes to big men in the NBA. To give you context, Brook Lopez had a total rebound rate of 13.4% last season (young Stanley wasn't that far off either at 13.0% fyi). The good news was in 2016-17 he did shoot 78.8%(!) at the rim, but the bad news was that his next highest percentage was 44.8% in the 10-16 foot range. It seems like for every good thing Leuer brings to the table he has a limitation that almost negates the skills he does possess.

Now, I am not a hater when it comes to Leuer. I think he is a solid all around big man that can play either the 4 or the 5 and I would take him on my team as a backup any day. But his contract is tough to swallow if he is a jack of all trades and master of none. Just like we did for Ish, let's take a look at fellow backup big men and their salaries around the association to understand how much Leuer is making in comparison. Out of Power Forwards: only Ryan Anderson and Kenneth Faried make more annually than Leuer. And out of Centers: Joakim Noah, Bismack Biyombo, Ian Mahinmi, Timofey Mozgof, Gorgui Dieng, Mason Plumlee, Tyson Chandler, Miles Plumlee, Kelly Olynyk, and Omer Asik all make more than Leuer. So as a backup center Leuer is a REALLY good bargain, but as a backup power forward he is REALLY bad overpay. Going back again to questioning his position, this would explain why he is such a hard guy to evaluate. If you're playing him at center and he's playing like he is capable of, then he is thumbs up and can be traded to a lot of teams. But if he's playing power forward, even if he's playing up to his abilities he is making more than only two other backups in the league. This is why I still think his contract is tough to swallow as he is viewed by the majority of the basketball world as a power forward. That is where he's spent most of his minutes during his career. I know the team just signed Zaza, but I think it is in theirs and Leuer's best interest to keep him at center as much as possible since he is much easier to market and pump up his value when lined up against the field of backup centers in the NBA.

But if he were traded, who would need or want this kind of guy stuck between positions that doesn't do any one thing particularly well? Well I think the easiest way to determine who would need or want Leuer would be teams lacking big men. I think trying to qualify the type of big men needed (like oh Leuer can shoot so he should go to X team since they need a big man who can stretch the floor) is not helpful when trying to find a spot for Leuer since, as we have seen, he has a lot of inconsistencies in his game. But he is still useful to a team that lack big men. That we can say for sure. First and foremost, the Brooklyn Nets certainly could use Leuer's services as their only big men under contract for next season are Jarrett Allen, Ed Davis, and Kenneth Faried. The Grizzlies could use Leuer at backup center since they only have Dakari Johnson backing up Marc Gasol right now. The Knicks also have only one guy listed at power forward in Kristaps. The Magic need a major upgrade from Jerrell Martin behind Aaron Gordon. After trading away Jakob Poeltl the Raptors need a backup center. The Jazz are also severely limited in big men as Ekpe Udoh is the only one listed behind the starters. And if the rumors are true that Ryan Anderson will be dealt to Sacramento then Houston may be in need of Leuer depending on who they get back from the Kings.

I think out of all the possibilities, though, Brooklyn offers the best deal and greatest possibility to move Leuer. The trade I see is as follows:

Brooklyn receives: Jon Leuer, Ish Smith, Henry Ellenson

Detroit receives: Allen Crabbe, Shabazz Napier

RealGM told me it worked!

The Pistons would have to wait until December 15th I believe, though, as Napier just signed a new deal and he couldn't be moved until then. But I think it is a great deal for both sides. Brooklyn has a lot of solid options on the wing and especially at the 2 guard with Crabbe, Joe Harris, and Caris LeVert. Even guys like Spencer Dinwiddie and recent draft picks Dzanan Musa and Rodions Kurucs can play there. That is a lot of bodies and not enough minutes. And while they were the ones that signed Crabbe originally to this deal, clearing his money helps tremendously in luring Kyrie and Jimmy Butler to Brooklyn. A lineup of Kyrie, Harris, Butler, RHJ, and Allen looks like a playoff team in the East easily. Ish helps accomplish this too as he has an expiring contract. Plus he is a very good backup that replaces Napier. And Ellenson gives them another intriguing young big man they can keep around for one more season on his rookie deal if they want. Not to mention Leuer who is good to stick around and inhabit his role of jack of all trades big man in that second unit with Caris LeVert for at least one more season. And in this scenario the team will have tons of cap space to find the complimentary players to surround them with in that second unit.

The Pistons, meanwhile, get much needed shooting help on the wing and an upgrade at the backup point guard. Crabbe's deal is huge and you may wonder why in the world I would be advocating for the Pistons to take on his salary when they already owe Blake, Dre, and Reggie so much money. First and foremost, Crabbe's deal ends at the end of the 2019-20 season so the team would not be making a long term commitment to him. Crabbe also helps tremendously in the Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson impending free agency. We all acknowledge that the team has a chance of retaining one of them but not both of them. Well if Stanley sucks again on offense, then they can just cut him loose and try to retain Bullock. If Bullock gets hurt again or regresses, then they can look at retaining Stanley. If neither of them works out, then they still have Crabbe, Kennard, and GR3 on the wings. Is it an expensive insurance plan? Absolutely! But it is much better than hoping on finding a way of clearing Leuer and Galloway's salary without giving up draft picks. And it is much better than staying pat and hoping either Bullock or Stanley comes back at a discount. Oh, and Crabbe doesn't waste many shots as his career true shooting percentage of 57.1% is awesome. Bullock has the same career percentage and Kennard shot 56.0% last season so that 3 wing rotation there is just what the doctor ordered for this space challenged offense. And while I love Ish, Napier is an upgrade due to his fit in Detroit. He's gotta be very happy with this trade too as he gets to move from third-string behind Russell and Dinwiddie in Brooklyn to primary backup and potential starter (since Reggie is not the paragon of health) in Detroit. Sure he doesn't have Ish's assist numbers, but he is no ball stopper and his career 36.3% from 3 gives the big men even more room to operate. Plus, if the mandate is to compete for the playoffs, then Napier has the experience of this past season in Portland where started in place of Dame when he was injured and was a big reason they were able to make it to the 3 seed out West. And the cherry on top of all this is Napier is signed for the 2018-19 season AND the 2019-20 season so he'll be able to stay here until Reggie's contract ends at a ridiculously cheap deal. He's been slowly raising his level of play each season and it is not out of the realm of possibilities to see him turn into a Jeff Teague or George Hill level of point guard in a season or two. I still don't understand why the Pistons went out and signed Jose Calderon and didn't even kick the tires on Shabazz.

Let me know what you think about my thoughts on Jon Leuer, the proposed trade here, and if you have a better one. Always happy to see what you all think as I am severely lacking basketball talk in my life and love getting my fix here on DBB. Check in next time when we look at Reggie Jackson and really scratch our heads over trying to figure out his worth internally and externally.


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