FanPost

Fivethirtyeight Projections. What say you?

Fivethirtyeight has their projections for the NBA season out. Their end result for the Pistons is 39.7-42.3, which seems pretty close to the standard projection from other sites and the current sportsbook win total props that are available. It ranks the Pistons as the 20th best offense, 11th best defense, and 18th best team overall.

Thought I'd share this one, though, because they've decided to start showing their work. Here is a link to the Google Doc with their projections of minutes at each position for each team, player ratings, team's offensive/defensive ratings, etc.

I re-edited the Pistons portion a little bit so I could wrap my brain around it. Here's what they have for projected minutes played and projected +/- for offense and defense for each player.

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Obviously not a perfect chart (Reggie Hearn?), but think it's an ok starting point to look at the team (as in, how much better/worse production can the Pistons expect if we took out those 328 Hearn minutes at -1.3/-0.3 and gave them to other players.)

I'm going to look at that chart and come up with arguments in favor of the Pistons doing better than this projection AND arguments they will do worse.

Reasons I Think Pistons Beat This Projection

  1. Bullock and Kennard minutes are too low - The projections have what I hope will be the Pistons best offensive pair of wing players in over a decade playing just about 100 minutes combined more than they did last year. Last year, Kennard was a rookie and Bullock was hurt part of the year, suspended to begin the year, and the team was dumping tons of minutes on Avery Bradley's overworked shoulders until the trade. I don't think you can pencil both in for 82 games and 28 minutes each, but I'm hoping the duo can come closer to 4,000 combined minutes than 3,000. Replacing some of the above chart's Hearn/Galloway/Robinson minutes with Bullock/Kennard minutes would up the Pistons projection.
  2. Blake is hopefully better than this - The projections have Blake as a +2.5 overall player, aboutt same as last year. I think he'll be better than he was last year because I'm a homer who is giving him a pass for his career-worst offensive play when he first joined Detroit. If he's only a +2 offensive player, the Pistons chances of improving from a sub-mediocre offense are slim.
  3. Pistons point guard play will be better than this - Their system has Ish grading out worse than he did the last two years, Jackson grading out worse than last year (when he didn't grade out well to begin with), and Calderon completely falling off a cliff. I'm scared of the Pistons point guard play, but, well, I'll just hope that all three players won't drop off precipitously. I guess. I don't know. This one scares me.
Reasons I Think Pistons Are Worse This Projection
  1. Blake plays fewer minutes - The last three years, Griffin has played 1,170, 2,076, and 1,970 minutes. 2,300 minutes, while not a ton, may actually be optimistic! Let's hope not. This leads us to...
  2. This may be underselling how bad Ellenson is, and seems to have limited ways to address the roster if he can't play - In extremely limited minutes the last two years, CARMELO has Ellenson as a -4 player. Their projections above have him as a -1.5 player. If Ellenson gobbles up nearly 600 minutes playing like a -4 player, that will hurt the team. If he does show that badly in real games, you would think he wouldn't be out there for that many minutes, but the Pistons front court options are limited. (Aside: one fun thing about Ellenson's CARMELO page is Dirk's appearance on the comparable players list. So you're telling me there's a chance).
  3. Drummond is worse than projected offensively - This one is third for a reason, but in honor of both sides-ism, I had to come up with a third. And we (meaning I) don't need to jump into the Andre stuff any more. BUT. The system here has Drummond as a -0.5 offensive player, which is a step down from last year, but a step up from the two years prior (where he was -0.8 and an ugly -1.9). I'd imagine if you broke last year up into pre-and-post Blake, pre-Blake Andre was much, much better than -0.5 and post-Blake Andre was much, much worse. I am cautiously optimistic that new coaching and a full offseason to prepare on working him in with Blake will keep the wheels on the road here, but bad news isn't out of the question.
My homer brain is into the reasons for optimism more than the reasons for pessimism when I look at that chart. I'm largely buying on Blake beating his projection, Bullock, and Luke beating their minutes projections, and the PG trio not all getting markedly worse at the same time. (All that said, the comparable player charts for Blake and Bullock aren't exactly heartening. This is probably optimism on my part.)

The biggest reason for panic when looking at the chart really is the front court depth. Leuer's already hurt again, Ellenson is still a prospect but a very boom-or-bust one, Zaza's old, Blake's injury history is well known, and the team doesn't have much wiggle room to improve the roster if things go south. Hopefully Casey and crew are taking this into account and looking at ways this roster can work for stretches with only one big on the floor. Stanley Johnson, you're our only hope?

So, what do the rest of you think? What about their projections would you quibble with? Will Pistons offense be better/worse than 20th, and why? Will Pistons defense be better/worse than 12th, and why?

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